84% — Will Max Clark play in a game for any team in the MLB before Sep 1, 2026 Leader: Before Nov 1, 2027 at 84% · Kalshi 84% · 6 contracts · $15 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 20:35:02 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: This reflects the probability that Max Clark, a professional baseball player, will appear in at least one MLB game before September 1, 2026—roughly 3.5 months from now. The extremely low probability suggests Clark is either not currently on an MLB roster or faces significant barriers to active play during this window. The main factors driving this assessment are his current roster status, injury history or recovery timeline if applicable, and the typical call-up patterns for minor league players at this point in the season. The primary catalyst that would shift this probability would be an official roster transaction—either a promotion from the minor leagues or a signing by an MLB organization—combined with actually entering a game during the compressed remaining timeframe. Key factors: - Current roster status: whether Clark is on an MLB active roster, injured list, or in minor league assignment - Time compression: only ~3.5 months remain for an appearance to occur, limiting opportunity windows - Recent transaction history: any trades, signings, or release announcements that would provide concrete evidence of pathway to play - Health and availability: confirmation of injury status, rehabilitation timeline, or medical clearance if applicable - Historical precedent: typical timeline for Clark's previous call-ups or appearances to assess likelihood of mid-season opportunity Contracts: - Will Max Clark play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2027?: Before Nov 1, 2027 — 84¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Max Clark play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2027?: Before May 1, 2027 — 64¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 60%) - Will Max Clark play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 61¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 40%) - Will Max Clark play in a game for any team in the MLB before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 54¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Max Clark play in a game for any team in the MLB before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Max Clark play in a game for any team in the MLB before Jul 13, 2026?: Before Jul 13, 2026 — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.664Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbdebut-mclar Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Max%20Clark%20play%20in%20a%20game%20for%20any%20team%20in%20the%20MLB%20before%20Sep%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev