84% — Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2028 Leader: Before Nov 1, 2029 at 84% · Kalshi 84% · 8 contracts · $299 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 21:11:09 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: This represents the current belief that Seth Hernandez will play in at least one MLB game before May 1, 2028—roughly 14 months from now. The 26% probability reflects significant uncertainty about his readiness and opportunities. Key drivers include his current status in professional baseball (minor league development, injury recovery, or organizational depth chart position) and the timeline required for him to reach MLB. The biggest resolution event would be either his MLB debut itself or the passage of May 1, 2028 without an appearance. Earlier contract prices (9¢ for debuts before November 2027 and August 2028) suggest markets view a near-term call-up as unlikely, with probabilities increasing modestly as the deadline extends further out. Key factors: - Current organizational position and whether Hernandez is on an MLB organization's 40-man roster or minor league affiliate - Evidence of recent performance metrics, injuries, or development progress that would affect promotion likelihood in the next 14 months - Typical promotion timelines for players in his situation—whether he is a prospect still developing, a recently signed prospect, or a player recovering from injury - Whether the organization has early-season injuries or roster gaps that might accelerate a call-up, versus a more stable roster situation - The specific date (May 1, 2028) relative to typical MLB roster movements, trades, and call-up windows during spring training and early season Contracts: - Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2029?: Before Nov 1, 2029 — 84¢ Kalshi $248 (weight 83%) - Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2029?: Before Aug 1, 2029 — 77¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 6%) - Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2028?: Before Nov 1, 2028 — 69¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2029?: Before May 1, 2029 — 65¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 2%) - Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2028?: Before Aug 1, 2028 — 42¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 5%) - Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2028?: Before May 1, 2028 — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2027?: Before Aug 1, 2027 — 26¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 2%) - Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2027?: Before Nov 1, 2027 — 21¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 2%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.659Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbdebut-shernandez Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Seth%20Hernandez%20play%20in%20a%20game%20for%20any%20team%20in%20the%20MLB%20before%20May%201%2C%202028 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev