18% — Will Jackson Flora be picked 3rd in the Pro Baseball Draft Kalshi 18% · 14 contracts · $393 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:29 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 16% chance that Jackson Flora will be selected 3rd overall in the professional baseball draft. The probability reflects Flora's competitive position against other top-tier prospects, with the ordering of early draft picks largely dependent on team priorities and player performance in pre-draft evaluations. Flora's current position is modest compared to leading candidates like Roch Cholowsky (55% for 1st pick) and Grady Emerson (27% for 2nd pick), suggesting scouts and analysts view other prospects as more likely top-three selections. The main factors influencing this probability would be Flora's performance in final pre-draft workouts, any changes to team needs at the top of the draft order, or shifts in how teams evaluate competing prospects. The draft itself will resolve all uncertainty once selections are announced. Key factors: - Flora's contract for 3rd pick (16%) is notably lower than contracts for 1st pick candidates like Cholowsky (55%) and Emerson at 2nd (27%), indicating market consensus favors other prospects ahead of him - Flora has a 9% contract for 2nd pick but no listed contract for 1st pick, suggesting the market perceives him as a mid-round-one possibility rather than a consensus top prospect - The top four 1st-pick contracts (Cholowsky 55%, Lackey 25%, Emerson 13%, and others) sum to over 93%, leaving limited probability mass for Flora at earlier positions - Contract volumes are relatively modest ($0-$1014 in 24h volume), indicating this is a lower-volume market segment with potentially wider bid-ask spreads - Flora's probability depends on both which teams pick 1st and 2nd and their draft selections, introducing dependency on multiple sequential outcomes rather than an independent event Contracts: - Will Roch Cholowsky be picked 1st in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Roch Cholowsky — 61¢ Kalshi $155 (weight 39%) - Will Vahn Lackey be picked 2nd in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Vahn Lackey — 20¢ Kalshi $67 (weight 17%) - Will Tyler Bell be picked 2nd in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Tyler Bell — 5¢ Kalshi $46 (weight 12%) - Will Grady Emerson be picked 3rd in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Grady Emerson — 14¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 10%) - Will Grady Emerson be picked 2nd in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Grady Emerson — 24¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 6%) - Will Eric Booth Jr. be picked 5th in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Eric Booth Jr. — 5¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 5%) - Will Jackson Flora be picked 5th in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Jackson Flora — 30¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 5%) - Will Grady Emerson be picked 1st in the Pro Baseball Draft?: Grady Emerson — 12¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 4%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:48.747Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbdraftpick Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jackson%20Flora%20be%20picked%203rd%20in%20the%20Pro%20Baseball%20Draft Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev