6% — Will Carter Hawkins win Executive of the Year
Kalshi 6% · 18 contracts · $48 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 07:43:30 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the estimated likelihood that Carter Hawkins will be named Executive of the Year in 2026. At 6%, the market suggests Hawkins is considered a long-shot candidate relative to other tracked executives. The low probability likely reflects limited visibility into his recent performance metrics or comparative standing against better-established executives in the same year. Movement in this probability would depend on major announcements, promotions, or public recognition of significant business accomplishments that distinguish Hawkins from competitors. The resolution hinges on which organization issues the Executive of the Year award and their selection criteria, with the award announcement date serving as the key catalyst for determining the outcome.

Key factors:
- Carter Hawkins' current executive position and scope of responsibility compared to other 2026 award candidates
- Public announcements or business results attributed to Hawkins between now and the award announcement that would affect his competitive standing
- Which Executive of the Year award is being referenced (industry-specific, regional, or national), as different awarding bodies use different selection criteria
- The timing and visibility of the award announcement relative to Hawkins' most recent notable achievements or decisions
- Historical patterns showing whether career trajectory, tenure, or specific accomplishments most influence Executive of the Year selections for the referenced award

Contracts:
- Will Ben Cherington win Executive of the Year?: Ben Cherington — 10¢ Kalshi $48 (weight 100%)
- Will David Frost win Executive of the Year?: David Frost — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Mike Hazen win Executive of the Year?: Mike Hazen — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Mike Elias win Executive of the Year?: Mike Elias — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Carter Hawkins win Executive of the Year?: Carter Hawkins — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Chris Getz win Executive of the Year?: Chris Getz — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Brad Meador win Executive of the Year?: Brad Meador — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Mike Chernoff win Executive of the Year?: Mike Chernoff — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-14T07:20:50.767Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbeoty
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Carter%20Hawkins%20win%20Executive%20of%20the%20Year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev