6% — Will there be extra innings in the Pittsburgh vs St. Louis game originally scheduled for May 19, 2026 at 7:45 PM EDT
Kalshi 6% · 1 contracts · $467 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 05:59:50 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract settles if the Pittsburgh Pirates versus St. Louis Cardinals game originally scheduled for May 19, 2026 at 7:45 PM EDT goes to extra innings. The 6% probability indicates markets view extra innings as unlikely in this matchup. Extra innings frequency in MLB has historically ranged from 8-10% of all games, though specific team and ballpark characteristics affect likelihood. The current market price suggests slightly below-average odds, potentially reflecting recent performance data, pitching matchup details, or ballpark factors at the relevant stadium. Resolution will occur after the game concludes—whether the contest remains tied after nine innings determines the outcome. The probability could shift based on injury reports, roster transactions, or updated team statistics closer to the scheduled date.

Key factors:
- Historical MLB extra innings rate averages 8-10% of games, making 6% approximately 25-40% below baseline
- Pittsburgh and St. Louis ballpark dimensions and recent run-scoring environments affect probability of tied scores after regulation
- Pitching staff quality and bullpen depth for both teams influence likelihood of extended close contests
- Game scheduling context (day vs night, back-to-back games) can impact player fatigue and game competitiveness
- The original May 19 date may have been postponed; current June 14 timing suggests verification of actual scheduled game details is necessary

Contracts:
- Will there be extra innings in the AL vs NL game originally scheduled for Jul 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM EDT?: Game goes to extra innings — 6¢ Kalshi $467 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T05:20:52.013Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbextras
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20extra%20innings%20in%20the%20Pittsburgh%20vs%20St.%20Louis%20game%20originally%20scheduled%20for%20May%2019%2C%202026%20at%207%3A45%20PM%20EDT
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev