50% — Los Angeles D vs San Francisco Winner
Kalshi 50% · 13 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-27 05:35:25 UTC

Why this matters:
This 50% probability reflects equal odds between Los Angeles D and San Francisco in their upcoming matchup. The even split suggests market participants see both teams as comparably matched, with no clear consensus favorite. Key drivers of this probability include recent team performance metrics, head-to-head historical records, and current injury reports or roster changes. The specific game date and final lineup announcements would likely shift this probability as more information becomes available. Any significant roster changes, coaching decisions, or updated performance data in the days leading up to the matchup could move the odds in either direction. Market participants are monitoring team form and tactical preparation as the contest approaches.

Key factors:
- Recent win-loss records and point differential for both teams over the last 10-15 games
- Head-to-head historical performance and outcomes from prior matchups between these teams
- Current injury status of key players and roster availability confirmed by official team announcements
- Trading volume and price movement on related prediction contracts showing how sentiment has shifted over time
- Team's performance in similar game contexts or against comparable opponents in recent weeks

Contracts:
- Atlanta vs San Francisco Winner?: San Francisco — 42¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 24%)
- Atlanta vs San Francisco Winner?: Atlanta — 58¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 23%)
- New York Y vs Boston Winner?: Boston — 48¢ Kalshi $823 (weight 12%)
- Los Angeles D vs San Diego Winner?: Los Angeles D — 57¢ Kalshi $700 (weight 10%)
- Los Angeles D vs San Diego Winner?: San Diego — 43¢ Kalshi $378 (weight 6%)
- New York Y vs Boston Winner?: New York Y — 47¢ Kalshi $314 (weight 5%)
- Chicago C vs Milwaukee Winner?: Milwaukee — 59¢ Kalshi $301 (weight 4%)
- Miami vs St. Louis Winner?: St. Louis — 54¢ Kalshi $275 (weight 4%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-27T05:20:49.877Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbgame
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Los%20Angeles%20D%20vs%20San%20Francisco%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev