39% — Will Cody Bellinger win the AL Gold Glove for Left Field in the 2026 season Kalshi 39% · 6 contracts · $27 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 23:35:00 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 6% probability that Cody Bellinger will win the AL Gold Glove for Left Field in 2026, reflecting the consensus view of traders on Kalshi. Bellinger, who plays for the Houston Astros, would need to substantially outperform other AL left fielders in defensive metrics—primarily fielding percentage, range factor, and visual defensive plays—to win the award. The Gold Glove voting occurs after the regular season ends and accounts for both objective defensive statistics and subjective evaluation by players, coaches, and media. The probability suggests voters see stronger defensive candidates at the position, though Bellinger's placement on a contending team could factor into voting. This resolves in late October 2026 when voters announce their picks. Key factors: - Bellinger's defensive statistics in 2026 (fielding percentage, errors, range factor) compared to competitors like Kyle Schwarber, Juan Soto, or other leading AL left fielders - Voting patterns from players, coaches, and media in previous Gold Glove elections and their historical weighting of advanced metrics versus traditional statistics - Whether the Astros' competitive standing influences voter perception of individual players, given that award voting sometimes correlates with team success - Bellinger's recent defensive performance trends and durability—Gold Glove voters typically prioritize players with consistent playing time over a full season - The depth and quality of competing candidates at AL left field and whether a consensus favorite emerges by season's end Contracts: - Will Fernando Tatis Jr. win the NL Gold Glove for Right Field in the 2026 season?: Fernando Tatis Jr. — 3¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 55%) - Will Alex Bregman win the NL Gold Glove for Third Baseman in the 2026 season?: Alex Bregman — 51¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 29%) - Will Caleb Durbin win the AL Gold Glove for Third Baseman in the 2026 season?: Caleb Durbin — 76¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 8%) - Will Ceddanne Rafaela win the AL Gold Glove for Center Field in the 2026 season?: Ceddanne Rafaela — 4¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 7%) - Will Chicago C win the NL Gold Glove for Team in the 2026 season?: Chicago C — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Masyn Winn win the NL Gold Glove for Shortstop in the 2026 season?: Masyn Winn — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T23:20:52.929Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbgg Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Cody%20Bellinger%20win%20the%20AL%20Gold%20Glove%20for%20Left%20Field%20in%20the%202026%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev