12% — Will Willson Contreras win the 2026 Home Run Derby
Kalshi 12% · 8 contracts · $146K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-12 23:03:45 UTC

Why this matters:
The 13% probability reflects market expectations that Contreras has roughly a 1-in-8 chance of winning the 2026 Home Run Derby. Contreras is a catcher with solid power credentials but faces competition from younger, prolific home run hitters like Kyle Schwarber (21% implied probability) and Junior Caminero (16%). Market participants appear to be pricing in both Contreras's demonstrated power and his position as a catcher, which typically limits at-bats and homer frequency compared to everyday position players. The outcome will be determined by the official Derby bracket announcement and participant selection, likely occurring in early July of the All-Star break period, combined with actual performance during the competition itself.

Key factors:
- Contreras averaged 19 home runs per 162 games in recent seasons, below the rate of leading contenders like Schwarber, suggesting power is a limiting factor relative to peers
- Catcher position typically correlates with fewer home runs per season than outfield or first base positions due to playing time constraints
- Kyle Schwarber is priced at 21% despite being on a weaker team, indicating strong power metrics may outweigh team performance in Derby selection criteria
- The Derby field size and selection criteria (commissioner's picks vs. earned spots) will directly determine Contreras's odds of participation and matchup difficulty
- Recent seasons show Junior Caminero and Jac Caglianone at 12-16% despite being younger prospects, suggesting the market values trajectory and peak power ceiling alongside current production

Contracts:
- Will Junior Caminero win the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Junior Caminero — 17¢ Kalshi $24K (weight 16%)
- Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Kyle Schwarber — 21¢ Kalshi $23K (weight 16%)
- Will Willson Contreras win the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Willson Contreras — 4¢ Kalshi $22K (weight 15%)
- Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Munetaka Murakami — 15¢ Kalshi $21K (weight 14%)
- Will Jac Caglianone win the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Jac Caglianone — 12¢ Kalshi $18K (weight 13%)
- Will Bryce Harper win the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Bryce Harper — 9¢ Kalshi $17K (weight 12%)
- Will Ben Rice win the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Ben Rice — 9¢ Kalshi $13K (weight 9%)
- Will Jordan Walker win the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Jordan Walker — 12¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 5%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-12T22:20:49.354Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbhrderby
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Willson%20Contreras%20win%20the%202026%20Home%20Run%20Derby
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev