32% — Will the players in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby record at least 2 500+ foot home runs Leader: 1+ HRs at 32% · Kalshi 32% · 5 contracts · $11K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-12 23:59:57 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: This market assesses whether MLB Home Run Derby participants will hit at least two balls 500+ feet during the 2026 event. At 38%, it suggests the outcome is somewhat unlikely but not remote. The probability reflects historical data on ultra-distance home runs in derby conditions—500+ foot homers are exceptionally rare even among elite power hitters swinging in a competition designed to maximize distance. Factors driving this level include the quality of participating hitters, ballpark dimensions, and weather conditions on event day. The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby, scheduled for mid-July, will provide the definitive measurement. Current pricing shows higher confidence in at least one 500+ footer occurring (30¢) versus two or more (11¢), suggesting markets view incremental distance thresholds as increasingly difficult to clear. The gap between these contracts indicates meaningful uncertainty about extreme power output sustainability across multiple swings. Key factors: - Historical frequency: 500+ foot home runs in recent MLB Home Run Derbies occur in single digits or not at all, establishing a baseline for rarity - Participant pool composition: The specific hitters selected for 2026 will determine average exit velocity and power ceiling; elite sluggers increase probability substantially - Ballpark choice impact: Venue selection affects both baseline distance and whether atmospheric/dimensional factors favor extreme distance outcomes - Measurement standards: Official Statcast or equivalent tracking technology must verify and classify each homer, introducing potential definitional variance - Recent trend data: 2024-2025 derby results and aggregate exit velocities among current MLB power leaders provide the most recent comparable sample Contracts: - Will the players in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby record at least 1 500+ foot home run?: 1+ HRs — 32¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 21%) - Will the players in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby record at least 2 500+ foot home runs?: 2+ HRs — 15¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 22%) - Will the players in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby record at least 3 500+ foot home runs?: 3+ HRs — 6¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 40%) - Will the players in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby record at least 4 500+ foot home runs?: 4+ HRs — 4¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 15%) - Will the players in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby record at least 5 500+ foot home runs?: 5+ HRs — 3¢ Kalshi $170 (weight 2%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-12T23:20:50.616Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbhrderby500 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20players%20in%20the%202026%20MLB%20Home%20Run%20Derby%20record%20at%20least%202%20500%2B%20foot%20home%20runs Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev