12% — Will Junior Caminero record the longest home run by distance at the 2026 Home Run Derby Kalshi 12% · 7 contracts · $30K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-12 23:03:44 UTC Why this matters: This probability represents the chance that Junior Caminero will hit the longest home run by distance at the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby. At 14%, Caminero is positioned as a mid-tier contender, behind Jac Caglianone (22%) but ahead of several other candidates. The derby outcome depends on both sustained power performance during regular season competition and peak form on the specific day of the event. Market participants are currently pricing in higher probabilities for Caglianone, suggesting broader consensus around a smaller group of top power hitters. The primary factors affecting Caminero's probability would be his home run distance data throughout the 2026 season, invitation likelihood to the derby, and comparative performance metrics versus other confirmed or probable participants. The derby will ultimately resolve this uncertainty through direct measurement of home run distances during the competitive event. Key factors: - Caminero's average home run distance during 2026 regular season compared to other derby-eligible candidates - Whether Caminero receives an invitation to the 2026 Home Run Derby and confirms participation - Historical derby performance patterns showing which players tend to hit the longest drives under controlled derby conditions versus regular season - Relative market probabilities for competing candidates like Caglianone (22%) and Murakami (8%), indicating confidence distribution - Caminero's injury status and playing time during the 2026 season, which affects both derby eligibility and power numbers Contracts: - Will Kyle Schwarber record the longest home run by distance at the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Kyle Schwarber — 14¢ Kalshi $13K (weight 42%) - Will Jac Caglianone record the longest home run by distance at the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Jac Caglianone — 13¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 17%) - Will Junior Caminero record the longest home run by distance at the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Junior Caminero — 19¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 12%) - Will Munetaka Murakami record the longest home run by distance at the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Munetaka Murakami — 8¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 9%) - Will Jordan Walker record the longest home run by distance at the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Jordan Walker — 17¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 8%) - Will Bryce Harper record the longest home run by distance at the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Bryce Harper — 5¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 7%) - Will Ben Rice record the longest home run by distance at the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Ben Rice — 5¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 4%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-12T22:20:49.463Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbhrderbylongest Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Junior%20Caminero%20record%20the%20longest%20home%20run%20by%20distance%20at%20the%202026%20Home%20Run%20Derby Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev