5% — Will Junior Caminero and Jac Caglianone be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby Kalshi 5% · 14 contracts · $12K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-12 23:03:44 UTC Why this matters: This contract asks whether Junior Caminero and Jac Caglianone will face each other in the championship round of the 2026 Home Run Derby. At 5%, the market is pricing this as an unlikely but plausible outcome. The low probability reflects that dozens of MLB players are eligible, making any specific two-player pairing statistically improbable. Caminero appears more likely to advance than Caglianone—contracts pairing Caminero with Kyle Schwarber (9¢) and Murakami with Schwarber (8¢) trade higher, suggesting market confidence in Caminero's participation but significant uncertainty about his finals opponent. The Home Run Derby takes place during MLB All-Star Week, typically in early July each year. Resolution depends entirely on the bracket composition, seeding, and actual performance during the 2026 competition. Key factors: - Junior Caminero's derby matchup contracts trade substantially higher than this pairing (Kyle Schwarber-Caminero at 9¢), indicating the market expects Caminero to reach the finals but with Schwarber or another player as more probable opponents - Caglianone-specific finals contracts trade at or below this level, suggesting limited market confidence in Caglianone advancing past earlier rounds relative to other finalists - The top four competing pairing contracts collectively represent the market's expectations for finals matchups and total only 29¢, reflecting high fragmentation across possible outcomes - Any shifts in participant eligibility (All-Star selections, injuries) between now and July 2026 would directly alter the probability space - Historical Home Run Derby performance data and 2025 performance by these specific players will influence betting as the 2026 competition approaches Contracts: - Will Kyle Schwarber and Jac Caglianone be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Kyle Schwarber and Jac Caglianone — 5¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 31%) - Will Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper — 6¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 28%) - Will Junior Caminero and Ben Rice be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Junior Caminero and Ben Rice — 3¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 11%) - Will Munetaka Murakami and Junior Caminero be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Munetaka Murakami and Junior Caminero — 5¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 9%) - Will Kyle Schwarber and Junior Caminero be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Kyle Schwarber and Junior Caminero — 9¢ Kalshi $942 (weight 8%) - Will Munetaka Murakami and Kyle Schwarber be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Munetaka Murakami and Kyle Schwarber — 8¢ Kalshi $890 (weight 7%) - Will Kyle Schwarber and Ben Rice be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Kyle Schwarber and Ben Rice — 6¢ Kalshi $457 (weight 4%) - Will Junior Caminero and Jordan Walker be the matchup for the final round of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Junior Caminero and Jordan Walker — 5¢ Kalshi $178 (weight 1%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-12T22:20:49.617Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbhrderbymatchup Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Junior%20Caminero%20and%20Jac%20Caglianone%20be%20the%20matchup%20for%20the%20final%20round%20of%20the%202026%20Home%20Run%20Derby Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev