37% — Will Bobby Witt Jr. be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby
Kalshi 37% · 11 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 08:02:47 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability estimates a 30% chance that Bobby Witt Jr. will be selected for Major League Baseball's 2026 Home Run Derby, typically held during All-Star Week in July. Selection depends primarily on his mid-season performance metrics—particularly home run totals and batting average relative to other eligible players—and MLB's official selections announced closer to the event. The probability reflects uncertainty around whether Witt Jr.'s offensive production through June will warrant an invitation compared to other power hitters. The main catalyst resolving this question will be MLB's official Home Run Derby roster announcement, usually made in early to mid-July. Comparative contract pricing shows similar uncertainty across other candidates, with Aaron Judge trading at 4% and Max Muncy at 27%, suggesting markets view Witt Jr. as a moderate candidate relative to other sluggers.

Key factors:
- Bobby Witt Jr.'s home run count and slugging percentage through late June relative to other qualifying players
- MLB's historical selection criteria, which typically favor players with high home run totals and fan voting results
- Witt Jr.'s injury status and playing time availability heading into the All-Star break
- Competition from other power hitters—players like Judge, Muncy, and O'Neill Cruz may reduce selection likelihood if their offensive numbers exceed Witt Jr.'s
- Official Home Run Derby roster announcement date in early-to-mid July 2026, which definitively resolves the contract

Contracts:
- Will Yordan Alvarez be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?: Yordan Alvarez — 10¢ Kalshi $525 (weight 47%)
- Will Pete Alonso be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?: Pete Alonso — 45¢ Kalshi $392 (weight 35%)
- Will James Wood be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?: James Wood — 74¢ Kalshi $65 (weight 6%)
- Will Oneil Cruz be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?: Oneil Cruz — 12¢ Kalshi $39 (weight 4%)
- Will Matt Olson be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?: Matt Olson — 11¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 3%)
- Will Andy Pages be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?: Andy Pages — 74¢ Kalshi $36 (weight 3%)
- Will Max Muncy (LAD) be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?: Max Muncy (LAD) — 76¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 1%)
- Will Christian Walker be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?: Christian Walker — 24¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-14T07:20:51.631Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbhrderbyqual
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bobby%20Witt%20Jr.%20be%20selected%20to%20the%202026%20Pro%20Baseball%20Home%20Run%20Derby
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev