49% — Will Bryce Harper qualify for Round 2 of the 2026 Home Run Derby Kalshi 49% · 8 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-12 23:59:56 UTC Why this matters: This probability represents whether Bryce Harper will advance past the first round of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby competition. At 39%, the market suggests Harper has less than even odds of qualifying for Round 2. Harper's performance depends on his health status heading into the Derby, his current home run hitting form during the 2026 season, and whether he receives an invitation to participate. The contract shows lower confidence compared to elite sluggers like Kyle Schwarber (72%) but notably higher than some other qualified hitters. The main catalyst will be the MLB's announcement of Derby participants, typically made shortly before the All-Star Game in early July. Harper's first-round matchup result would provide the definitive resolution, as Derby advancement is determined by raw performance in that specific event rather than season statistics. Key factors: - Harper's cumulative home run total and batting average through late June 2026 season, which indicates current form and power-hitting capability - Whether Harper receives an official Derby invitation and accepts participation, as non-participation would prevent Round 2 qualification - Harper's injury history and physical conditioning status in the weeks leading up to the Derby competition - The specific first-round matchup difficulty, as Harper's advancement depends on out-hitting his randomly assigned opponent in head-to-head competition - Historical Derby performance data for Harper in previous years, showing consistency or volatility in derby-specific performance versus regular season power Contracts: - Will Jac Caglianone qualify for Round 2 of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Jac Caglianone — 55¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 43%) - Will Bryce Harper qualify for Round 2 of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Bryce Harper — 45¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 20%) - Will Jordan Walker qualify for Round 2 of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Jordan Walker — 46¢ Kalshi $909 (weight 12%) - Will Ben Rice qualify for Round 2 of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Ben Rice — 24¢ Kalshi $796 (weight 11%) - Will Munetaka Murakami qualify for Round 2 of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Munetaka Murakami — 57¢ Kalshi $332 (weight 4%) - Will Willson Contreras qualify for Round 2 of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Willson Contreras — 37¢ Kalshi $315 (weight 4%) - Will Kyle Schwarber qualify for Round 2 of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Kyle Schwarber — 67¢ Kalshi $276 (weight 4%) - Will Junior Caminero qualify for Round 2 of the 2026 Home Run Derby?: Junior Caminero — 60¢ Kalshi $154 (weight 2%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-12T23:20:49.793Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "49% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbhrderbysemi Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bryce%20Harper%20qualify%20for%20Round%202%20of%20the%202026%20Home%20Run%20Derby Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev