19% — Will Philadelphia have the longest losing streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Kalshi 19% · 5 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-27 08:02:33 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability indicates roughly a 1-in-4 chance that Philadelphia has the longest single losing streak of any Major League Baseball team during the 2026 regular season. The market is pricing in historical baseline rates for such extreme performance, adjusted for Philadelphia's roster composition and recent competitive standing. Factors supporting a higher probability would include significant injuries to key players, unexpected front-office turnover, or systematic performance collapse. Conversely, roster stability and competitive spending would lower this likelihood. The outcome will be determined over the full 162-game regular season, with clarity emerging by early October 2026 when final standings confirm which team experienced the worst consecutive-game drought.

Key factors:
- Philadelphia's 2025 season performance and current roster depth relative to other MLB teams
- Historical frequency of longest losing streaks by team and whether Philadelphia has disproportionately experienced such streaks
- Early 2026 season results through June-July, indicating whether Philadelphia shows vulnerability to extended slumps
- Injury severity to position players or starting pitchers during the regular season
- Off-season roster changes and competitive balance shifts across the 30-team league

Contracts:
- Will New York M have the longest losing streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: New York M — 17¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 75%)
- Will Miami have the longest losing streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Miami — 64¢ Kalshi $584 (weight 21%)
- Will Chicago WS have the longest losing streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Chicago WS — 3¢ Kalshi $103 (weight 4%)
- Will Detroit have the longest losing streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Detroit — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will New York Y have the longest losing streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: New York Y — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-27T07:20:49.689Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlblstreak
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Philadelphia%20have%20the%20longest%20losing%20streak%20in%20the%202026%20Pro%20Baseball%20regular%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev