12% — Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027
Kalshi 12% · 10 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 07:34:29 UTC

Why this matters:
This market reflects traders' assessment that Francisco Lindor will be traded to or sign with the New York Mets before March 25, 2027, priced at 69% likelihood. Lindor is currently with the Chicago Cubs and entering the final year of his contract, making him a potential trade candidate before the deadline. The high probability for the Mets reflects their repeated pursuit of star shortstops and reported interest, though the Cubs have shown reluctance to part with their star player. The next major catalyst is the MLB trade deadline in late July 2026, when contending teams finalize roster moves. Market pricing could shift based on trade rumors, team performance, Lindor's stated preferences, and competing offers from other franchises like Tampa Bay and Los Angeles.

Key factors:
- Lindor's contract status: final year of deal, making him available at trade deadline without long-term commitment concerns
- Cubs' competitive position and willingness to trade: their playoff odds and financial flexibility will influence whether they accept offers
- Mets' bidding power: reported interest and payroll capacity versus other contenders pursuing Lindor
- Trade deadline timing: July 30-31, 2026 hard deadline creates discrete event for resolution; post-deadline acquisition unlikely before March 2027
- Lindor's stated preference: any public comments about preferred destination or willingness to waive no-trade clauses if applicable

Contracts:
- Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Boston: Boston — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Cleveland: Cleveland — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Milwaukee: Milwaukee — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: New York M: New York M — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: New York Y: New York Y — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Philadelphia: Philadelphia — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: San Francisco: San Francisco — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T07:20:50.269Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbnextteam
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Francisco%20Lindor's%20next%20team%20before%20Mar%2025%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev