16% — Will Brandon Woodruff win NL CPOTY
Kalshi 16% · 7 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-26 20:53:29 UTC

Why this matters:
A 13% probability means the market currently estimates about a 1-in-8 chance that Brandon Woodruff wins the National League Comeback Player of the Year award. This reflects uncertainty about his performance trajectory for the remainder of the 2026 season relative to other eligible competitors. The probability is driven primarily by Woodruff's actual on-field statistics—wins, earned run average, innings pitched—and how compellingly his narrative aligns with comeback criteria, typically defined as returning from significant injury or performance decline. The resolution point is the official CPOTY award announcement, typically occurring in November after the regular season concludes. Until then, shifts in the probability would correspond to meaningful changes in his statistical standing, injury status, or how voters' preferences consolidate among eligible candidates.

Key factors:
- Woodruff's ERA, win total, and innings pitched through season's end compared to other nominees will directly determine voting consideration
- Recovery trajectory from previous season injury or underperformance versus competing candidates' narratives
- Current market pricing at 3¢ shows minimal trading volume ($0 in 24h), suggesting low conviction or interest from traders versus other CPOTY candidates
- Michael Harris II (7¢) and Ezequiel Tovar (11¢) are priced higher, indicating the market views them as stronger CPOTY contenders based on current form
- The award's definition and voters' weighting of statistical performance versus narrative comeback elements could materially shift which candidate wins

Contracts:
- Will Zack Wheeler win NL CPOTY?: Zack Wheeler — 82¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 87%)
- Will Sandy Alcantara win NL CPOTY?: Sandy Alcantara — 8¢ Kalshi $159 (weight 13%)
- Will Ezequiel Tovar win NL CPOTY?: Ezequiel Tovar — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Michael Harris II win NL CPOTY?: Michael Harris II — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Shota Imanaga win NL CPOTY?: Shota Imanaga — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Sean Manaea win NL CPOTY?: Sean Manaea — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Tie/Co-Winners win NL CPOTY?: Tie/Co-Winners — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-26T20:20:49.622Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbnlcpoty
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Brandon%20Woodruff%20win%20NL%20CPOTY
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev