21% — Will Chris Sale win NL Cy Young Kalshi 21% · 4 contracts · $15K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:36 UTC Why this matters: This probability represents the chance that Chris Sale wins the National League Cy Young Award in 2026. At 12%, the market reflects Sale's status as a potential but not favored contender for baseball's top pitching honor. Sale's award probability would be influenced by his injury history and ability to maintain performance over a full season—he has dealt with significant arm injuries in recent years that have affected durability. The primary catalyst is the conclusion of the 2026 MLB regular season in late September, when voting determines the winner based on accumulated statistics like ERA, wins, strikeouts, and innings pitched. Voter sentiment typically favors pitchers from winning teams with low ERAs and high innings totals. The market assessment may shift substantially based on Sale's actual performance trajectory through the season and whether he avoids further injury. Key factors: - Chris Sale's innings pitched and ERA through the 2026 season relative to other NL starters - Sale's team's winning percentage and playoff positioning, as voters tend to favor pitchers from successful teams - Availability and performance of competing NL pitchers during the 2026 season - Sale's durability record given prior shoulder and elbow injuries that have limited his availability - The relative voting weight given to strikeouts, wins, and ERA by Cy Young voters in previous years Contracts: - Will Cristopher Sanchez win NL Cy Young?: Cristopher Sanchez — 13¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 35%) - Will Paul Skenes win NL Cy Young?: Paul Skenes — 7¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 30%) - Will Jacob Misiorowski win NL Cy Young?: Jacob Misiorowski — 61¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 27%) - Will Shohei Ohtani win NL Cy Young?: Shohei Ohtani — 4¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 8%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:50.746Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbnlcy Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Chris%20Sale%20win%20NL%20Cy%20Young Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev