12% — Will Chris Sale win NL Cy Young
Kalshi 12% · 8 contracts · $14K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:21 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the chance that Chris Sale wins the National League Cy Young Award in 2026. At 12%, the market reflects Sale's status as a potential but not favored contender for baseball's top pitching honor. Sale's award probability would be influenced by his injury history and ability to maintain performance over a full season—he has dealt with significant arm injuries in recent years that have affected durability. The primary catalyst is the conclusion of the 2026 MLB regular season in late September, when voting determines the winner based on accumulated statistics like ERA, wins, strikeouts, and innings pitched. Voter sentiment typically favors pitchers from winning teams with low ERAs and high innings totals. The market assessment may shift substantially based on Sale's actual performance trajectory through the season and whether he avoids further injury.

Key factors:
- Chris Sale's innings pitched and ERA through the 2026 season relative to other NL starters
- Sale's team's winning percentage and playoff positioning, as voters tend to favor pitchers from successful teams
- Availability and performance of competing NL pitchers during the 2026 season
- Sale's durability record given prior shoulder and elbow injuries that have limited his availability
- The relative voting weight given to strikeouts, wins, and ERA by Cy Young voters in previous years

Contracts:
- Will Jacob Misiorowski win NL Cy Young?: Jacob Misiorowski — 5¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 51%)
- Will Mason Miller win NL Cy Young?: Mason Miller — 3¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 27%)
- Will Paul Skenes win NL Cy Young?: Paul Skenes — 34¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 9%)
- Will Cristopher Sanchez win NL Cy Young?: Cristopher Sanchez — 14¢ Kalshi $910 (weight 6%)
- Will Shohei Ohtani win NL Cy Young?: Shohei Ohtani — 17¢ Kalshi $476 (weight 3%)
- Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto win NL Cy Young?: Yoshinobu Yamamoto — 12¢ Kalshi $364 (weight 3%)
- Will Chris Sale win NL Cy Young?: Chris Sale — 10¢ Kalshi $156 (weight 1%)
- Will Tyler Glasnow win NL Cy Young?: Tyler Glasnow — 3¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 1%)

Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbnlcy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Chris%20Sale%20win%20NL%20Cy%20Young
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev