32% — Will Chris Sale win NL Cy Young
Kalshi 32% · 3 contracts · $869 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-26 18:38:09 UTC

Why this matters:
This 32% probability indicates traders view Chris Sale as having roughly a one-in-three chance of winning the 2026 National League Cy Young Award. Sale's odds reflect the typical uncertainty around mid-season pitcher performance and health durability. Upward movement would depend on sustained excellence in ERA, strikeout rates, and innings pitched through season's end, while declines would follow injury setbacks or statistical regression. The probability will resolve definitively when MLB awards the Cy Young in November, based on voting by baseball writers who weigh complete-season statistics like ERA, WHIP, wins, and strikeouts. Near-term trading activity appears light, with minimal 24-hour volume, suggesting limited market confidence in current pricing or modest trader interest in this specific outcome.

Key factors:
- Chris Sale's current ERA, WHIP, and strikeout rate relative to other NL starting pitchers through August 2026
- Health status and injury history; any missed starts or rehabilitation periods would materially reduce Cy Young viability
- Innings pitched through season's end; voters historically favor pitchers who accumulate sufficient workload (typically 180+ innings)
- Performance in September and October; late-season statistics often influence close Cy Young voting
- Relative statistical performance of competing pitchers, particularly Misiorowski (83¢ implied probability) and other top NL starters

Contracts:
- Will Jacob Misiorowski win NL Cy Young?: Jacob Misiorowski — 90¢ Kalshi $392 (weight 45%)
- Will Cristopher Sanchez win NL Cy Young?: Cristopher Sanchez — 3¢ Kalshi $371 (weight 43%)
- Will Chris Sale win NL Cy Young?: Chris Sale — 4¢ Kalshi $106 (weight 12%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-26T18:20:51.367Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbnlcy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Chris%20Sale%20win%20NL%20Cy%20Young
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev