10% — Will Elly De La Cruz win NL Hank Aaron Award
Kalshi 10% · 8 contracts · $560 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 05:21:34 UTC

Why this matters:
The Hank Aaron Award goes annually to the top offensive player in each league, based on a formula combining batting average, home runs, and RBIs. A 14% probability for Elly De La Cruz suggests moderate long-shot status as of early May 2026. This level reflects her position in the National League's offensive hierarchy at this point in the season. The main drivers are her current statistics relative to peers—particularly home run and RBI totals—and how she performs through the season's remainder. Contract volume on related markets like her MVP odds (4¢) indicates lower trader confidence compared to frontrunners like Shohei Ohtani (42¢ for the NL award). The award will be determined after the regular season concludes in late September, with final statistics providing the decisive data. Injuries, mid-season trades, or significant performance improvements could meaningfully shift her odds.

Key factors:
- De La Cruz's current offensive statistics (batting average, home runs, RBIs) relative to other NL position players as of early May
- Trading volume and pricing on related markets (her MVP contract at 4¢ vs. Ohtani at 42¢ for NL Hank Aaron Award) indicate relative market confidence levels
- Seasonal trajectory—whether De La Cruz's performance accelerates, declines, or plateaus through May-September compared to competitors
- Historical volatility of the Hank Aaron Award voting to similar caliber players, as past winners and runners-up provide context for 14% probability placement
- Regular season completion date (late September/early October) when final statistics are locked in for award determination

Contracts:
- Will Kyle Schwarber win NL Hank Aaron Award?: Kyle Schwarber — 14¢ Kalshi $216 (weight 39%)
- Will Shohei Ohtani win NL Hank Aaron Award?: Shohei Ohtani — 21¢ Kalshi $214 (weight 38%)
- Will James Wood win NL Hank Aaron Award?: James Wood — 4¢ Kalshi $80 (weight 14%)
- Will Jordan Walker win NL Hank Aaron Award: Jordan Walker — 9¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 9%)
- Will Bryce Harper win NL Hank Aaron Award?: Bryce Harper — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Drake Baldwin win NL Hank Aaron Award: Drake Baldwin — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Elly De La Cruz win NL Hank Aaron Award?: Elly De La Cruz — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Fernando Tatis Jr. win NL Hank Aaron Award?: Fernando Tatis Jr. — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-07-14T05:20:49.767Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbnlhaaron
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Elly%20De%20La%20Cruz%20win%20NL%20Hank%20Aaron%20Award
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev