19% — Will Tony Vitello win NL MOTY
Kalshi 19% · 5 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-22 02:48:49 UTC

Why this matters:
Tony Vitello's 8% probability of winning National League Manager of the Year reflects market expectations that he is a long-shot candidate compared to frontrunners like Walt Weiss (25%). Manager of the Year voting typically rewards significant overperformance relative to preseason expectations, playoff seeding improvements, or notable turnarounds. Vitello's chances would be influenced by Tennessee baseball's regular-season performance through late September, his team's final standings relative to projected projections, and whether his squad secures a playoff berth. The probability will primarily be resolved following the MLB regular season conclusion in late September 2026, when voters cast ballots based on teams' final records and individual manager performance narratives. Market interest remains relatively low across most non-frontrunner candidates, as indicated by minimal trading volume on contracts below 10%, suggesting limited conviction in outlier outcomes.

Key factors:
- Vitello's team's final regular-season record and playoff qualification status relative to preseason expectations
- Comparative overperformance of other NL managers, particularly Weiss and Kelly who command significantly higher probabilities
- Voting patterns favoring managers whose teams exceed projection models or experience notable mid-season turnarounds
- Trading volume concentration on Weiss contract ($683 24h vol) versus minimal activity on Vitello contract suggests market consensus on frontrunner separation
- Lack of recent volume on lower-probability contracts indicates established market consensus rather than shifting expectations

Contracts:
- Will Craig Stammen win NL MOTY?: Craig Stammen — 3¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 68%)
- Will Pat Murphy win NL MOTY?: Pat Murphy — 69¢ Kalshi $465 (weight 27%)
- Will Walt Weiss win NL MOTY?: Walt Weiss — 17¢ Kalshi $86 (weight 5%)
- Will Terry Francona win NL MOTY?: Terry Francona — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Warren Schaeffer win NL MOTY?: Warren Schaeffer — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-22T02:20:49.787Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbnlmoty
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tony%20Vitello%20win%20NL%20MOTY
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev