10% — Will Tony Vitello win NL MOTY
Kalshi 10% · 11 contracts · $122 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 05:44:28 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the chance that Tony Vitello, manager of the Miami Marlins, wins National League Manager of the Year in 2026. At 10%, the market views him as a significant long-shot compared to frontrunners like Walt Weiss (26%). Vitello's odds reflect both the difficulty of winning awards in a competitive league and Miami's position as a rebuilding franchise unlikely to contend for playoff spots. The main factors driving this low probability are the Marlins' expected win total and divisional competitiveness in the NL East. Manager of the Year voting typically favors leaders of overperforming or surprising teams, or managers whose rosters compete for playoff positions. The resolution of this market depends entirely on regular season performance and voting outcomes in October 2026, after the MLB regular season concludes. Vitello's odds could shift significantly if Miami unexpectedly contends or demonstrates notable improvement relative to preseason expectations.

Key factors:
- Miami's 2026 projected win total relative to preseason expectations—overperformance typically drives MOTY voting
- Competitive performance by other NL managers, particularly Walt Weiss and the Rockies, who currently lead probability estimates
- Whether the Marlins secure a playoff berth or compete seriously in the NL East, which would increase Vitello's credibility with voters
- Vitello's track record managing player development and in-game decision-making relative to peer managers
- October voting results by BBWAA members, which ultimately determine the award winner

Contracts:
- Will Blake Butera win NL MOTY?: Blake Butera — 4¢ Kalshi $47 (weight 39%)
- Will Don Mattingly win NL MOTY: Don Mattingly — 20¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 31%)
- Will Clayton McCullough win NL MOTY?: Clayton McCullough — 26¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 15%)
- Will Oliver Marmol win NL MOTY?: Oliver Marmol — 5¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 15%)
- Will Walt Weiss win NL MOTY?: Walt Weiss — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Craig Stammen win NL MOTY?: Craig Stammen — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Dave Roberts win NL MOTY?: Dave Roberts — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Pat Murphy win NL MOTY?: Pat Murphy — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-14T05:20:48.729Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbnlmoty
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tony%20Vitello%20win%20NL%20MOTY
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev