18% — Will Moises Ballesteros win NL ROTY
Kalshi 18% · 5 contracts · $745 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:05:03 UTC

Why this matters:
The 15% probability reflects betting market expectations that Philadelphia Phillies prospect Moises Ballesteros will win the National League Rookie of the Year award. At mid-season 2026, this relatively modest odds level suggests bettors view Ballesteros as a secondary contender rather than a frontrunner. The main drivers of this probability are his actual playing time and performance statistics through the season—batting average, on-base percentage, power numbers, and games played accumulate through June and July, directly determining his eligibility and competitiveness against other rookie candidates. The probability will move significantly in early September as voters begin considering final statistics, with the formal award announcement typically occurring in November. Early performance trends and playing time allocation over the next two months represent the primary catalysts that could shift expectations either upward or downward before year-end resolution.

Key factors:
- Ballesteros's plate appearances and games played through August, which determine eligibility and statistical volume compared to other NL rookies
- His offensive production metrics (batting average, home runs, RBIs, on-base percentage) relative to other first-year position players in the National League
- Philadelphia's decision regarding his playing time and roster role—whether he receives consistent at-bats or limited opportunities
- Performance and statistics of competing rookie candidates in the NL during the same period
- Any injuries or roster moves affecting either Ballesteros or primary competitors for the award

Contracts:
- Will Sal Stewart win NL ROTY?: Sal Stewart — 15¢ Kalshi $323 (weight 43%)
- Will JJ Wetherholt win NL ROTY?: JJ Wetherholt — 57¢ Kalshi $279 (weight 37%)
- Will Bryce Eldridge win NL ROTY?: Bryce Eldridge — 10¢ Kalshi $65 (weight 9%)
- Will Nolan McLean win NL ROTY?: Nolan McLean — 3¢ Kalshi $56 (weight 8%)
- Will Carson Benge win NL ROTY?: Carson Benge — 4¢ Kalshi $21 (weight 3%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T05:20:50.724Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbnlroty
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Moises%20Ballesteros%20win%20NL%20ROTY
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev