25% — Will Moises Ballesteros win NL ROTY
Kalshi 25% · 4 contracts · $23K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 11:45:03 UTC

Why this matters:
Moises Ballesteros is currently priced at a 25% probability of winning National League Rookie of the Year, based on aggregated prediction market data. This reflects his position among several competing candidates, with JJ Wetherholt leading at 65% and Sal Stewart at 22%. The probability would shift based on performance metrics through the remainder of the 2026 season—primarily batting average, home runs, RBIs, and games played. Ballesteros's chances depend on whether he maintains offensive production, avoids significant injury, and outperforms other eligible rookies. The final resolution occurs in November 2026 when the NL ROTY award is announced by baseball voters. Trading volume and price movement across the competing contracts suggest meaningful uncertainty, with no single candidate having overwhelming consensus.

Key factors:
- Ballesteros's statistics relative to other rookie eligibles (Wetherholt, Stewart, Rumfield, McLean) through end of regular season in early October 2026
- Plate appearances and games played—eligibility requires limited prior service time and typically 502+ plate appearances
- Performance in September and October, including playoff performance if applicable, influences voter perception
- Injury status and availability for remainder of season; extended absences would significantly reduce probability
- Voting patterns from previous ROTY awards and whether voters favor batting average, power, overall WAR, or specific position eligibility

Contracts:
- Will JJ Wetherholt win NL ROTY?: JJ Wetherholt — 38¢ Kalshi $11K (weight 49%)
- Will Sal Stewart win NL ROTY?: Sal Stewart — 42¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 32%)
- Will Nolan McLean win NL ROTY?: Nolan McLean — 6¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 12%)
- Will Carson Benge win NL ROTY?: Carson Benge — 13¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 7%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-27T11:21:46.809Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbnlroty
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Moises%20Ballesteros%20win%20NL%20ROTY
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev