7% — Will José Soriano be the American League Pitcher of the Month for April
Kalshi 7% · 10 contracts · $959 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:14 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates an 11% chance that José Soriano will be named the American League Pitcher of the Month for April 2026. The probability reflects his performance relative to other AL pitchers during that specific month, with the award typically going to the pitcher with the most wins, lowest ERA, or strongest overall statistics among qualified starters. The current low probability suggests either that Soriano underperformed in April or that other pitchers posted more dominant numbers. The resolution will occur when MLB officially announces the award winner, typically in early May. Factors affecting the probability include Soriano's win-loss record, ERA, and innings pitched throughout April compared to competitors, as well as whether he remained healthy and received regular starts. Any significant injuries to top AL competitors could shift probability upward, while sustained excellence from other pitchers would likely keep it low.

Key factors:
- Soriano's April 2026 ERA and win-loss record relative to other AL starters
- Whether Soriano received regular starting assignments and innings pitched in April
- Performance of competing AL pitchers during the same month, particularly those on contending teams
- Historical voting patterns of baseball media selecting Pitcher of the Month awards
- Any injuries to other AL pitchers that could reduce competition for the award

Contracts:
- Will Jacob Misiorowski be the National League Pitcher of the Month for May?: Jacob Misiorowski — 7¢ Kalshi $469 (weight 49%)
- Will Max Fried be the American League Pitcher of the Month for May?: Max Fried — 9¢ Kalshi $368 (weight 38%)
- Will Nathan Eovaldi be the American League Pitcher of the Month for May?: Nathan Eovaldi — 3¢ Kalshi $119 (weight 12%)
- Will José Soriano be the American League Pitcher of the Month for May?: José Soriano — 6¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%)
- Will Trevor Rogers be the American League Pitcher of the Month for May?: Trevor Rogers — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Paul Skenes be the National League Pitcher of the Month for May?: Paul Skenes — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Robbie Ray be the National League Pitcher of the Month for May?: Robbie Ray — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Shohei Ohtani be the National League Pitcher of the Month for May?: Shohei Ohtani — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbpitcherotm
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jos%C3%A9%20Soriano%20be%20the%20American%20League%20Pitcher%20of%20the%20Month%20for%20April
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev