10% — Will José Soriano be the American League Pitcher of the Month for April Kalshi 10% · 12 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-29 00:25:54 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates an 11% chance that José Soriano will be named the American League Pitcher of the Month for April 2026. The probability reflects his performance relative to other AL pitchers during that specific month, with the award typically going to the pitcher with the most wins, lowest ERA, or strongest overall statistics among qualified starters. The current low probability suggests either that Soriano underperformed in April or that other pitchers posted more dominant numbers. The resolution will occur when MLB officially announces the award winner, typically in early May. Factors affecting the probability include Soriano's win-loss record, ERA, and innings pitched throughout April compared to competitors, as well as whether he remained healthy and received regular starts. Any significant injuries to top AL competitors could shift probability upward, while sustained excellence from other pitchers would likely keep it low. Key factors: - Soriano's April 2026 ERA and win-loss record relative to other AL starters - Whether Soriano received regular starting assignments and innings pitched in April - Performance of competing AL pitchers during the same month, particularly those on contending teams - Historical voting patterns of baseball media selecting Pitcher of the Month awards - Any injuries to other AL pitchers that could reduce competition for the award Contracts: - Will Drew Rasmussen be the American League Pitcher of the Month for June?: Drew Rasmussen — 4¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 93%) - Will Jacob Misiorowski be the National League Pitcher of the Month for June?: Jacob Misiorowski — 3¢ Kalshi $101 (weight 7%) - Will Tarik Skubal be the American League Pitcher of the Month for June?: Tarik Skubal — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jacob deGrom be the American League Pitcher of the Month for June?: Jacob deGrom — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Sonny Gray be the American League Pitcher of the Month for June?: Sonny Gray — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Bryan Woo be the American League Pitcher of the Month for June?: Bryan Woo — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Erik Sabrowski be the American League Pitcher of the Month for June?: Erik Sabrowski — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Aroldis Chapman be the American League Pitcher of the Month for June?: Aroldis Chapman — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-29T00:20:50.887Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbpitcherotm Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jos%C3%A9%20Soriano%20be%20the%20American%20League%20Pitcher%20of%20the%20Month%20for%20April Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev