9% — Will Aaron Judge be the American League Player of the Month for April
Kalshi 9% · 10 contracts · $934 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:09:05 UTC

Why this matters:
This 17% probability reflects the market's assessment that Aaron Judge will be named the American League's Player of the Month for April 2026. The relatively low probability suggests the market views other AL players as more likely to claim the honor based on their April performance. Judge's chance of winning depends primarily on his offensive statistics through April—batting average, home runs, RBIs, and on-base percentage relative to competing AL players. The actual resolution occurs when MLB announces the official April Player of the Month award, typically in early May. Factors that could shift this probability include Judge's actual April performance data, injuries to other top AL contenders, and whether the New York Yankees remain competitive. Since April has already concluded as of today's date, the award announcement should be imminent, making this a near-term resolution event. The 17% probability suggests the market currently favors other players but acknowledges Judge as a realistic candidate depending on final statistics.

Key factors:
- Judge's April 2026 offensive statistics (home runs, RBIs, batting average, OPS) compared to other AL players who performed in the same period
- Whether injuries to Judge or other top AL offensive performers occurred during April that affected their eligibility or competitiveness
- The specific voting criteria and historical patterns MLB uses to select monthly award winners, including how team performance factors into individual player recognition
- Market prices on competing AL players' Player of the Month probabilities, which would indicate the distribution of expected winners
- The timing and official announcement date from MLB of the April 2026 Player of the Month award

Contracts:
- Will Cody Bellinger be the American League Player of the Month for May?: Cody Bellinger — 18¢ Kalshi $555 (weight 59%)
- Will Andy Pages be the National League Player of the Month for May?: Andy Pages — 4¢ Kalshi $250 (weight 27%)
- Will Aaron Judge be the American League Player of the Month for May?: Aaron Judge — 17¢ Kalshi $67 (weight 7%)
- Will Shohei Ohtani be the National League Player of the Month for May?: Shohei Ohtani — 16¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 5%)
- Will Bobby Witt Jr. be the American League Player of the Month for May?: Bobby Witt Jr. — 3¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 1%)
- Will Shea Langeliers be the American League Player of the Month for May?: Shea Langeliers — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Zach Neto be the American League Player of the Month for May?: Zach Neto — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Nick Kurtz be the American League Player of the Month for May?: Nick Kurtz — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbplayerotm
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Aaron%20Judge%20be%20the%20American%20League%20Player%20of%20the%20Month%20for%20April
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev