95% — Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers
Leader: New York Y at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 19 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 03:10:19 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the aggregate expected likelihood that one of the five listed MLB teams will qualify for the 2026 playoffs. At 94%, it indicates high certainty that at least one of these franchises will secure a postseason spot, though the specific winner remains uncertain across the contracts. The current season record, remaining games, and divisional standings drive this assessment. Teams with higher contract prices (Atlanta at 91¢, Cleveland at 39¢) are viewed as more likely playoff qualifiers, while lower-priced teams reflect increased competitive barriers. The primary catalyst determining outcomes will be regular-season performance through the end of October 2026, when the playoff field is finalized. Weather, injuries, and mid-season trades could materially shift individual team probabilities, though the aggregate 94% reflects confidence that the market's expectations of playoff qualification remain stable across this cohort.

Key factors:
- Win-loss record and remaining schedule gap between each team and the playoff cutline as of early May 2026
- Trading deadline activity (late July/early August) and whether teams add or subtract playoff-contending talent
- Injury status of key roster players, particularly starting pitchers and offensive core contributors
- Historical playoff qualification rates for teams at similar win-percentage levels with equivalent games remaining
- Head-to-head competitive strength within divisions and wildcard positioning relative to other MLB conferences

Contracts:
- Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: New York Y — 95¢ Kalshi $578 (weight 7%)
- Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: Milwaukee — 91¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 29%)
- Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: Atlanta — 90¢ Kalshi $177 (weight 2%)
- Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: Philadelphia — 79¢ Kalshi $157 (weight 2%)
- Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: Cleveland — 49¢ Kalshi $112 (weight 1%)
- Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: Chicago WS — 46¢ Kalshi $651 (weight 8%)
- Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego — 39¢ Kalshi $118 (weight 2%)
- Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: Texas — 31¢ Kalshi $90 (weight 1%)
- ... and 11 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T02:20:49.555Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbplayoffs
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Pro%20Baseball%20Playoff%20Qualifiers
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev