97% — Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers
Leader: Tampa Bay at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 19 contracts · $16K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 18:15:22 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the leading contract's assessment that a specific team will qualify for the Major League Baseball playoffs in 2026, currently priced at 90 cents. The high probability suggests either a commanding division position or strong remaining schedule relative to competitors. Movement in this market would depend on actual win-loss records over the remainder of the regular season, as teams compete for limited playoff spots through direct standings races and wild-card positions. The primary catalyst driving resolution is the MLB regular season's conclusion on October 4, 2026, when final standings determine which teams clinch playoff berths. Between now and then, head-to-head matchups against division rivals, performance against teams in similar win totals, and injury developments to key players will incrementally shift win probabilities and thus playoff qualification odds.

Key factors:
- Current standings position and games remaining relative to other contenders in the same division or wild-card tier as of July 2, 2026
- Strength of schedule for the leading team versus direct competitors through the regular season's end
- Historical correlation between early-season performance (after 81+ games played) and final playoff qualification outcomes
- Trade deadline activity and roster changes that materially alter team composition before the July 31 deadline
- Injury status of All-Star or core roster players affecting win probability over the final three months

Contracts:
- Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: Tampa Bay — 97¢ Kalshi $572 (weight 4%)
- Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: Boston — 88¢ Kalshi $337 (weight 2%)
- Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: Philadelphia — 77¢ Kalshi $590 (weight 4%)
- Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: Chicago WS — 68¢ Kalshi $594 (weight 4%)
- Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: Houston — 58¢ Kalshi $543 (weight 3%)
- Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: Arizona — 54¢ Kalshi $282 (weight 2%)
- Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: Texas — 52¢ Kalshi $199 (weight 1%)
- Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego — 48¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 7%)
- ... and 11 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T17:20:52.813Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbplayoffs
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Pro%20Baseball%20Playoff%20Qualifiers
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev