27% — Will Aaron Judge record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Kalshi 27% · 20 contracts · $787 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:54 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract predicts a 23% chance that Aaron Judge will hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Judge has exceeded this threshold in recent years, including 62 home runs in 2022, but age, injury history, and team performance influence annual output. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether he'll maintain elite power production through a full season. Early-season performance through June and July will provide the clearest signal of whether he's on pace, as players typically establish their trajectory by mid-summer. The contract resolves after the regular season concludes in late September/early October when final statistics are official.

Key factors:
- Judge's home run rate through May-June 2026 compared to his historical seasonal pace of 35-45 home runs in recent healthy seasons
- Number of games Judge plays; injuries or missed time would significantly reduce probability of reaching 40 home runs
- Team batting environment; team offensive ranking and run-scoring context affects individual power output opportunity
- Comparative market prices show 72¢ for the same Judge contract on another Kalshi market, indicating potential mispricing or data lag
- Competitor probability at 23% suggests marginal likelihood; Judge's track record as elite power hitter argues for baseline expectations above this level

Contracts:
- Will Mike Trout record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Mike Trout — 11¢ Kalshi $140 (weight 18%)
- Will Colson Montgomery record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Colson Montgomery — 23¢ Kalshi $133 (weight 17%)
- Will Willson Contreras record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Willson Contreras — 17¢ Kalshi $108 (weight 14%)
- Will Juan Soto record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Juan Soto — 7¢ Kalshi $72 (weight 9%)
- Will Will Smith record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Will Smith — 35¢ Kalshi $64 (weight 8%)
- Will Cody Bellinger record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Cody Bellinger — 3¢ Kalshi $56 (weight 7%)
- Will Freddie Freeman record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Freddie Freeman — 3¢ Kalshi $36 (weight 5%)
- Will Julio Rodriguez record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Julio Rodriguez — 27¢ Kalshi $28 (weight 4%)
- ... and 12 more

Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbseasonhr
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Aaron%20Judge%20record%2040%2B%20home%20runs%20during%202026%20Pro%20Baseball%20regular%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev