42% — Will Aaron Judge record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Kalshi 42% · 12 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-25 18:14:33 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 37% chance that Aaron Judge will hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. Judge has exceeded this threshold in previous seasons, but the probability reflects uncertainty about his current performance, health status, and team circumstances halfway through the season. The main factors affecting this estimate are Judge's year-to-date home run pace through early July, any injuries or lineup changes affecting his at-bats, and the remaining schedule length. Resolution will be determined by his final home run total when the regular season concludes in late September or early October, at which point all games will be completed and the statistic will be definitively known.

Key factors:
- Judge's home run total through July 2, 2026, and his current pace relative to a 40-homer season trajectory
- Number of games remaining in the regular season and Judge's expected playing time and health status
- Yankees offensive lineup composition and whether changes in team personnel affect his batting opportunities
- Historical variance in Judge's season-to-season home run production and any age or performance decline factors
- Comparison of his 2026 season statistics to his prior seasons that reached or fell short of 40-home-run thresholds

Contracts:
- Will Oneil Cruz record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Oneil Cruz — 78¢ Kalshi $400 (weight 40%)
- Will Ben Rice record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Ben Rice — 57¢ Kalshi $253 (weight 25%)
- Will Mookie Betts record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Mookie Betts — 47¢ Kalshi $181 (weight 18%)
- Will Kyle Schwarber record 50+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Kyle Schwarber — 30¢ Kalshi $52 (weight 5%)
- Will Rafael Devers record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Rafael Devers — 71¢ Kalshi $45 (weight 4%)
- Will Pete Alonso record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Pete Alonso — 5¢ Kalshi $36 (weight 4%)
- Will Seiya Suzuki record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Seiya Suzuki — 14¢ Kalshi $21 (weight 2%)
- Will Yordan Alvarez record 50+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Yordan Alvarez — 10¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 1%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-25T17:20:49.227Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "42% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbseasonhr
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Aaron%20Judge%20record%2040%2B%20home%20runs%20during%202026%20Pro%20Baseball%20regular%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev