37% — Will Aaron Judge record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season Kalshi 37% · 19 contracts · $620 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:43:04 UTC Why this matters: This contract predicts a 23% chance that Aaron Judge will hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Judge has exceeded this threshold in recent years, including 62 home runs in 2022, but age, injury history, and team performance influence annual output. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether he'll maintain elite power production through a full season. Early-season performance through June and July will provide the clearest signal of whether he's on pace, as players typically establish their trajectory by mid-summer. The contract resolves after the regular season concludes in late September/early October when final statistics are official. Key factors: - Judge's home run rate through May-June 2026 compared to his historical seasonal pace of 35-45 home runs in recent healthy seasons - Number of games Judge plays; injuries or missed time would significantly reduce probability of reaching 40 home runs - Team batting environment; team offensive ranking and run-scoring context affects individual power output opportunity - Comparative market prices show 72¢ for the same Judge contract on another Kalshi market, indicating potential mispricing or data lag - Competitor probability at 23% suggests marginal likelihood; Judge's track record as elite power hitter argues for baseline expectations above this level Contracts: - Will Jac Caglianone record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Jac Caglianone — 68¢ Kalshi $207 (weight 33%) - Will James Wood record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: James Wood — 95¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 16%) - Will Munetaka Murakami record 50+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Munetaka Murakami — 5¢ Kalshi $95 (weight 15%) - Will Ben Rice record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Ben Rice — 77¢ Kalshi $62 (weight 10%) - Will Junior Caminero record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Junior Caminero — 21¢ Kalshi $52 (weight 8%) - Will Brandon Lowe record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Brandon Lowe — 38¢ Kalshi $41 (weight 7%) - Will Hunter Goodman record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Hunter Goodman — 76¢ Kalshi $35 (weight 6%) - Will Wilyer Abreu record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Wilyer Abreu — 6¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 4%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:49.802Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbseasonhr Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Aaron%20Judge%20record%2040%2B%20home%20runs%20during%202026%20Pro%20Baseball%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev