15% — Will any hitter record 50+ home runs and 50+ steals Kalshi 15% · 9 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 07:15:42 UTC Why this matters: This market asks whether any professional baseball hitter will achieve the rare feat of 50+ home runs and 50+ stolen bases in a single season. At 24% probability, it reflects skepticism about such a combination occurring soon. The current level reflects two offsetting considerations: baseball has seen occasional 50-home-run seasons and occasional 50-steal seasons, but almost never from the same player in the same year, as these skills typically indicate different player types and playing styles. Resolution depends on 2026-2027 MLB regular seasons, where any qualifying player would need to demonstrate both power-hitting consistency and base-running speed simultaneously—a combination that has been exceptionally rare in professional baseball history. The outcome will become clearer as the 2026 MLB season progresses and player statistics accumulate through September. Key factors: - No MLB player has ever recorded 50+ home runs and 50+ stolen bases in a single season; the closest recent approach was 40+ HR/40+ SB by only one player in history (José Canseco, 1988) - A player attempting this feat must balance aggressive power-hitting and base-running approaches that typically conflict, as power hitters often strike out more and run less frequently - The 2026-2027 MLB seasons will be the evaluation period; current spring training and early-season performance of high-speed, high-power players will narrow probabilities - Rule changes, injury patterns, or unexpected player trades could significantly alter which players have realistic opportunities to pursue this milestone - Historical precedent suggests this represents an extreme statistical outlier in baseball performance rather than a likely outcome Contracts: - Will any pitcher record a no hitter?: No Hitter — 39¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 92%) - Will any hitter record 4+ home runs in a game?: 4+ Home runs — 15¢ Kalshi $83 (weight 4%) - Will any pitcher record 20+ wins?: 20+ Wins — 21¢ Kalshi $55 (weight 3%) - Will any pitcher record a perfect game?: Perfect Game — 11¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 1%) - Will any hitter record 2+ grand slams in any game?: 2+ Grand Slam — 10¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%) - Will any pitcher record a 107+ MPH Pitch?: 107+ MPH Pitch — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will any pitcher record a 106+ MPH Pitch?: 106+ MPH Pitch — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will any hitter record a 500+ foot home run (per Statcast measurement)?: 500+ Foot Home Run — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:49.794Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbstat Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20any%20hitter%20record%2050%2B%20home%20runs%20and%2050%2B%20steals Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev