5% — Will any hitter record 50+ home runs and 50+ steals Kalshi 5% · 6 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-25 06:32:05 UTC Why this matters: This contract estimates a 12% chance that a Major League Baseball player will achieve the rare dual milestone of 50+ home runs and 50+ stolen bases in a single season. The rarity of combining power hitting with speed is the primary factor keeping the probability low; historically, only a handful of players have approached either threshold, and combining both is exceptionally difficult. The probability would shift based on early-season performance from elite speed-and-power players, as well as rule changes or training methods that could make such feats more attainable. The main uncertainty resolves at the end of the 2026 MLB regular season, when final statistical records are finalized and compared against these thresholds. Key factors: - No player has recorded 50+ home runs and 50+ stolen bases in the same MLB season in the modern era (since 1900) - The highest home run total by a 50-steal player is 56 home runs (Willie Mays, 1956), suggesting the combination is at the extreme edge of human performance - Current MLB leaders in stolen bases typically average 15-30 home runs, while home run leaders rarely exceed 10 stolen bases - Rule changes or strategic shifts favoring stolen base attempts could slightly increase likelihood, though home run output would need to remain elite - The 2026 regular season has approximately 4.5 months remaining from the current date to observe which players are tracking toward both thresholds Contracts: - Will any pitcher record a no hitter?: No Hitter — 5¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 93%) - Will any pitcher record a perfect game?: Perfect Game — 3¢ Kalshi $88 (weight 7%) - Will any hitter record 2+ grand slams in any game?: 2+ Grand Slam — 5¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - Will any hitter record a 500+ foot home run (per Statcast measurement)?: 500+ Foot Home Run — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will any pitcher record a 106+ MPH Pitch?: 106+ MPH Pitch — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will any pitcher record a 107+ MPH Pitch?: 107+ MPH Pitch — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-25T06:20:49.659Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbstat Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20any%20hitter%20record%2050%2B%20home%20runs%20and%2050%2B%20steals Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev