45% — Will all hitters combined record 2+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game Kalshi 45% · 16 contracts · $254 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-27 07:55:26 UTC Why this matters: This contract asks whether at least two players will each hit three or more home runs in a single game during a specific period. The 47% probability reflects a middle-ground assessment of this relatively rare occurrence. The likelihood depends on the number of games played and the composition of active hitters—more games and stronger offensive lineups increase the probability, while injuries to power hitters or rule changes affecting home run frequency would decrease it. The primary resolution driver is the completion of the specified timeframe with final statistics, which would provide definitive data on whether the threshold was met. Key factors: - Historical frequency of 3+ home run games varies by season; recent MLB seasons show 1-3 instances annually - The time window specified for this contract determines how many games occur and therefore the probability of observing multiple instances - Roster composition and player availability directly affect offensive output; mid-season trades or injuries to power hitters materially change expectations - Weather conditions and ballpark dimensions influence home run rates across a season - Rule changes or equipment modifications affecting ball liveliness would shift baseline home run production Contracts: - Will all hitters combined record 10+ inside-the-park home runs?: 10+ inside-the-park home runs — 92¢ Kalshi $159 (weight 63%) - Will all hitters combined record 10+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game?: 10+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game — 95¢ Kalshi $94 (weight 37%) - Will all pitchers combined record 3+ immaculate innings?: 3+ immaculate innings — 52¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will all hitters combined record 2+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 2+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season — 51¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will all hitters combined record 1+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 1+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will all hitters combined record 3+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 3+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season — 29¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will all hitters combined record 4+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 4+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will all hitters combined record 5+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 5+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 8 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-27T07:20:51.135Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "45% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbstatcount Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20all%20hitters%20combined%20record%202%2B%20instances%20of%20a%20player%20hitting%203%2B%20home%20runs%20in%20a%20game Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev