45% — Will all hitters combined record 2+ instances of a player hitting 3+ home runs in a game Kalshi 45% · 17 contracts · $20 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 04:00:16 UTC Why this matters: This contract resolves positively if MLB players combined hit 3 or more home runs in a single game on 2+ separate occasions during the 2026 season. At 43% probability, the market suggests this is roughly even odds. The frequency of multi-home run games depends on offensive talent distribution and park effects across all 30 teams. A season with strong offensive power hitters increases the likelihood, while increased strikeout rates or more defensive-friendly ballpark conditions would lower it. The outcome will be determined by the final 2026 MLB regular season statistics, with full clarity available after October 2026 when season records are finalized. Key factors: - Baseline historical rate: In recent MLB seasons (2022-2025), players hitting 3+ home runs in a single game occurs roughly 5-8 times per season league-wide, so 2+ instances is well below historical norms - Offensive environment: The 2026 season's overall home run volume, influenced by ball composition, weather patterns, and league-wide batting approach, will materially affect this outcome - Star player availability: Injury status of elite power hitters throughout 2026 could significantly impact whether any player achieves the necessary single-game performance - Park factors: Specific ballpark dimensions and environmental conditions at teams' home stadiums affect home run frequency for their respective rosters - Completion date: Full resolution depends on 2026 MLB regular season conclusion in late September/early October 2026 Contracts: - Will all hitters combined record 4+ 30+ home runs and 30+ steals seasons?: 4+ players with a 30+ home runs and 30+ steals season — 49¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 100%) - Will all hitters combined record 7+ inside-the-park home runs?: 7+ inside-the-park home runs — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will all hitters combined record 8+ inside-the-park home runs?: 8+ inside-the-park home runs — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will all pitchers combined record 2+ immaculate innings?: 2+ immaculate innings — 74¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will all pitchers combined record 3+ immaculate innings?: 3+ immaculate innings — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will all pitchers combined record 4+ immaculate innings?: 4+ immaculate innings — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will all pitchers combined record 5+ immaculate innings?: 5+ immaculate innings — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will all hitters combined record 1+ cycles?: 1+ cycles — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T03:20:11.980Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "45% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbstatcount Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20all%20hitters%20combined%20record%202%2B%20instances%20of%20a%20player%20hitting%203%2B%20home%20runs%20in%20a%20game Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev