24% — Kyle Tucker: 2+ total bases
Kalshi 24% · 3 contracts · $443 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:07 UTC

Why this matters:
Kyle Tucker's 2+ total bases contract reflects a 35% probability that he will record at least two total bases (doubles, triples, or home runs combined with singles) in his next game or specified period. This probability sits below comparable players like Bobby Witt Jr. (42%) and José Ramírez (39%), suggesting the market views Tucker as less likely to achieve multi-base production in the near term. The pricing likely reflects recent performance data, current matchup conditions, or injury status. The resolution will depend on Tucker's actual at-bat outcomes in the relevant game(s), with market expectations adjusting based on lineup announcements, pitching matchups, or any roster changes announced before first pitch.

Key factors:
- Tucker's recent statistical performance in games versus similar opposing pitchers and ballpark conditions
- Whether Tucker is in the lineup for the relevant game and his recent plate discipline metrics (strikeout rate, contact quality)
- Comparison to baseline rates: approximately 30-40% of qualified MLB players record 2+ total bases in a given game
- Pitcher matchup factors including velocity profile, strikeout generation, and ballpark dimensions that favor power or contact hitting
- Any injury updates, roster moves, or batting order changes announced since the contract was priced

Contracts:
- Oneil Cruz: 2+ total bases?: Oneil Cruz: 2+ — 38¢ Kalshi $403 (weight 91%)
- Rafael Devers: 5+ total bases?: Rafael Devers: 5+ — 3¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 5%)
- Rafael Devers: 2+ total bases?: Rafael Devers: 2+ — 32¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 5%)

Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbtb
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Kyle%20Tucker%3A%202%2B%20total%20bases
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev