14% — Will Chicago WS record the most home runs in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season Kalshi 14% · 18 contracts · $417 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-12 23:59:59 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the implied odds that the Chicago White Sox will lead all MLB teams in home runs during the 2026 regular season. At 16%, it suggests the market views Chicago as a moderate-to-long-shot contender for this specific offensive category. The contract's current valuation likely reflects Chicago's roster composition, historical power output, and expected lineups relative to other teams. Key drivers include team personnel decisions made during the offseason and spring training, which determine whether Chicago will prioritize power hitters or balance other offensive elements. The resolution will occur when MLB concludes the 2026 regular season in late September or early October, at which point official statistics will definitively show which team recorded the most home runs. Trading volume remains minimal, indicating limited market interest in this particular outcome relative to other baseball metrics. Key factors: - Chicago's actual home run total through the 2026 regular season versus competing teams, measured from official MLB statistics - Changes to the White Sox roster composition during the 2025-2026 offseason and spring training that affect power-hitting capability - Injury status of key power hitters on Chicago's roster throughout the regular season - Home run production rates for other teams projected to be competitive in this category, particularly division rivals - Ballpark factors and play styles that either encourage or discourage home run attempts by the White Sox organization Contracts: - Will Philadelphia record the most strikeouts thrown in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Philadelphia — 29¢ Kalshi $265 (weight 63%) - Will Boston record the lowest team ERA in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Boston — 5¢ Kalshi $80 (weight 19%) - Will Los Angeles D record the most home runs in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Los Angeles D — 23¢ Kalshi $60 (weight 14%) - Will Washington record the most home runs in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Washington — 4¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 3%) - Will New York Y record the most home runs in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: New York Y — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Atlanta record the highest team batting average in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Atlanta — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Los Angeles D record the highest team batting average in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Los Angeles D — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Milwaukee record the highest team batting average in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Milwaukee — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-12T23:20:50.579Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbteamstat Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Chicago%20WS%20record%20the%20most%20home%20runs%20in%20the%202026%20Pro%20Baseball%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev