21% — Will Sandy Alcantara be traded before Aug 5, 2026
Kalshi 21% · 18 contracts · $27 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:13 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 27% chance that Sandy Alcántara, a Miami Marlins pitcher, will be traded before August 5, 2026. The low probability reflects that Alcántara is a valuable franchise cornerstone under contract and the Marlins have little financial incentive to trade him mid-season. The estimate could shift based on two factors: the team's win-loss record by late July, which would signal whether they're competitive enough to retain him, and any reported trade interest or negotiations emerging in late July when contending teams typically become active in the trade deadline market. The critical resolution point is the MLB trade deadline on August 5, 2026, after which any trade would render the contract void. Current low trading volume ($2 in 24-hour volume) suggests limited market attention to this specific outcome.

Key factors:
- Alcántara's injury history and current health status entering summer, which affects both his trade value and the Marlins' willingness to retain him
- Miami's competitive position and playoff odds by late July, determining whether they view the team as a contender worth keeping their ace or a seller worth trading him
- Reports of trade interest from contending teams with available prospects and payroll capacity between late July and August 5
- Alcántara's contract terms and any no-trade clause provisions that could restrict potential destinations
- The broader trade market activity level in late July, as deadline activity typically intensifies only in the final 2-3 weeks before August 5

Contracts:
- Will Tarik Skubal be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Tarik Skubal — 18¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 91%)
- Will Luis Severino be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Luis Severino — 39¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 9%)
- Will Zac Gallen be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Zac Gallen — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Joe Ryan be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Joe Ryan — 41¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Fernando Tatis Jr. be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Fernando Tatis Jr. — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Luis Castillo be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Luis Castillo — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Christian Walker be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Christian Walker — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Jose Berrios be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Jose Berrios — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 10 more

Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbtrade
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Sandy%20Alcantara%20be%20traded%20before%20Aug%205%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev