28% — Will Sandy Alcantara be traded before Aug 5, 2026 Kalshi 28% · 20 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 06:48:52 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 27% chance that Sandy Alcántara, a Miami Marlins pitcher, will be traded before August 5, 2026. The low probability reflects that Alcántara is a valuable franchise cornerstone under contract and the Marlins have little financial incentive to trade him mid-season. The estimate could shift based on two factors: the team's win-loss record by late July, which would signal whether they're competitive enough to retain him, and any reported trade interest or negotiations emerging in late July when contending teams typically become active in the trade deadline market. The critical resolution point is the MLB trade deadline on August 5, 2026, after which any trade would render the contract void. Current low trading volume ($2 in 24-hour volume) suggests limited market attention to this specific outcome. Key factors: - Alcántara's injury history and current health status entering summer, which affects both his trade value and the Marlins' willingness to retain him - Miami's competitive position and playoff odds by late July, determining whether they view the team as a contender worth keeping their ace or a seller worth trading him - Reports of trade interest from contending teams with available prospects and payroll capacity between late July and August 5 - Alcántara's contract terms and any no-trade clause provisions that could restrict potential destinations - The broader trade market activity level in late July, as deadline activity typically intensifies only in the final 2-3 weeks before August 5 Contracts: - Will Tarik Skubal be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Tarik Skubal — 41¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 68%) - Will Sonny Gray be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Sonny Gray — 35¢ Kalshi $225 (weight 11%) - Will Luis Castillo be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Luis Castillo — 26¢ Kalshi $188 (weight 9%) - Will Aroldis Chapman be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Aroldis Chapman — 81¢ Kalshi $65 (weight 3%) - Will Willson Contreras be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Willson Contreras — 37¢ Kalshi $53 (weight 3%) - Will Jazz Chisholm Jr. be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Jazz Chisholm Jr. — 19¢ Kalshi $44 (weight 2%) - Will Jo Adell be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Jo Adell — 27¢ Kalshi $33 (weight 2%) - Will Jarren Duran be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Jarren Duran — 39¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 1%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:49.525Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "28% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbtrade Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Sandy%20Alcantara%20be%20traded%20before%20Aug%205%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev