41% — Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season
Kalshi 41% · 20 contracts · $9K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 03:10:18 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract estimates a 54% probability that the San Diego Padres will win at least 75 games during the 2026 Major League Baseball season. The midpoint probability suggests roughly even odds of reaching this threshold, which represents a below-average win total for a competitive team. Performance through early May provides the primary driver of current odds, as approximately one-sixth of the season has elapsed and team record directly constrains maximum possible wins. The remaining 110+ games will determine whether the Padres reach 75 wins, with injuries, trade deadline moves, and month-to-month consistency significantly affecting trajectory. As the season progresses through June and July, updated win totals will either increase confidence in reaching 75 wins or shift probability downward if the team falls behind pace.

Key factors:
- Current win-loss record as of May 3, 2026, and games-won pace relative to 75-win threshold
- Implied probability of 85+ wins (57¢) versus 75+ wins (54¢) suggests modest confidence in stronger performance
- Depth and availability of starting rotation and core position players compared to preseason projections
- Trading deadline activity (late July) and whether team makes acquisitions to improve playoff positioning
- Run differential and luck-adjusted metrics, which historically predict win-total sustainability better than raw record through one month

Contracts:
- Will Seattle win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins — 15¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 19%)
- Will Baltimore win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins — 50¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 14%)
- Will Atlanta win at least 95 games this season?: 95+ wins — 44¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 14%)
- Will Seattle win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins — 42¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 12%)
- Will Milwaukee win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins — 92¢ Kalshi $750 (weight 8%)
- Will A's win at least 70 games this season?: 70+ wins — 83¢ Kalshi $600 (weight 7%)
- Will New York Y win at least 100 games this season?: 100+ wins — 17¢ Kalshi $416 (weight 5%)
- Will Pittsburgh win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins — 57¢ Kalshi $376 (weight 4%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T02:20:49.641Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "41% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbwins
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20San%20Diego%20win%20at%20least%2075%20games%20this%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev