39% — Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season Kalshi 39% · 20 contracts · $14K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-11 10:19:20 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects a 40% chance that the San Diego Padres will win at least 75 games in the 2026 MLB season. At the midpoint of the season (July 19), this outcome depends on the team's current win-loss record and remaining schedule. Teams typically need to maintain roughly a .500 winning percentage or better over their remaining games to reach 75 wins. The probability suggests market participants view 75 wins as moderately unlikely—implying either the Padres are currently behind pace, face a difficult remaining schedule, or both. The main factors driving this estimate are the team's performance to date and the quality of opponents in games still to play. Resolution will occur in early October when the regular season concludes, at which point the exact win total becomes known. Until then, significant winning or losing streaks, injuries to key players, or trades could shift expectations materially. Key factors: - Current win-loss record through July 19 and whether it puts the team on pace for 75+ wins - Strength of schedule remaining in the final 2.5 months of the season - Availability and performance of starting pitching and position player depth for the second half - Recent performance trend (winning or losing streak) and momentum entering the final stretch - Comparison to historical Padres performance and roster composition relative to division competition Contracts: - Will Boston win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins — 37¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 16%) - Will Boston win at least 100 games this season?: 100+ wins — 3¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 13%) - Will New York M win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins — 40¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 11%) - Will Arizona win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins — 55¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 8%) - Will New York M win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins — 3¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 8%) - Will Boston win at least 95 games this season?: 95+ wins — 6¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 8%) - Will Milwaukee win at least 100 games this season?: 100+ wins — 25¢ Kalshi $785 (weight 5%) - Will Toronto win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins — 84¢ Kalshi $666 (weight 5%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-11T09:20:49.637Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbwins Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20San%20Diego%20win%20at%20least%2075%20games%20this%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev