31% — Will Kansas City have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Kalshi 31% · 3 contracts · $9K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-22 00:23:59 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Kansas City will finish the 2026 MLB regular season with the worst record among all 30 teams. At 29%, the market views Kansas City as less likely than Colorado (51%) or the Los Angeles Athletics (33%) to have the league's worst record, suggesting traders expect other teams to struggle more significantly. The Royals' positioning reflects their recent roster construction and competitive standing relative to other struggling franchises. The final standings will be determined on October 4, 2026, when the regular season concludes. Until then, major factors include trade deadline acquisitions, injury developments among star players, and win-loss records across comparison teams in real time.

Key factors:
- Kansas City's current win-loss record and run differential compared to other bottom-dwellers as of September 10, 2026
- Roster composition and remaining schedule difficulty for Kansas City versus Colorado and Los Angeles Athletics through season end
- Recent trade activity or roster moves by Kansas City management versus competing teams with worst-record potential
- Injury status of key Royals players and impact on lineup quality for final month of play
- Historical performance trends: which franchise has shown the steepest decline and fewest paths to additional wins

Contracts:
- Will Colorado have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: Colorado — 55¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 36%)
- Will Los Angeles A have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: Los Angeles A — 33¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 35%)
- Will A's have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: A's — 4¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 29%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-11T19:20:52.836Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbworstrecord
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Kansas%20City%20have%20the%20worst%20record%20in%20Pro%20Baseball%20in%20the%202026%20regular%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev