19% — Will Kansas City have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Kalshi 19% · 5 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-27 07:55:25 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates an 11% chance that the Kansas City Royals finish the 2026 MLB regular season with the worst record in baseball. The prediction reflects early-season performance and roster composition relative to other struggling teams. The Royals' probability sits above some peers like St. Louis (4%) and New York Mets (3%), but below Chicago White Sox (9%), suggesting Kansas City is viewed as moderately vulnerable to finishing last. The main drivers are the team's win-loss record as games accumulate through the season and injury status of key players. The probability will clarify significantly as May and June progress, with the final determination coming when all 162 games conclude in late September 2026. Teams with similar records and talent levels will see their probabilities fluctuate inversely as the season unfolds.

Key factors:
- Kansas City's current win-loss record and run differential compared to other bottom-tier teams as of early May
- Injury status and availability of the Royals' key position players and starting pitchers through the season
- Trade deadline activity in late July, where struggling teams may sell off assets and further weaken rosters
- Performance trajectory of competing teams like Chicago White Sox, St. Louis, and New York Mets who also have low probabilities of worst record
- Remaining strength of schedule for Kansas City versus other non-competitive teams in their division and league

Contracts:
- Will A's have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: A's — 12¢ Kalshi $831 (weight 29%)
- Will New York M have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: New York M — 7¢ Kalshi $829 (weight 28%)
- Will Los Angeles A have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: Los Angeles A — 30¢ Kalshi $519 (weight 18%)
- Will San Francisco have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: San Francisco — 7¢ Kalshi $488 (weight 17%)
- Will Colorado have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: Colorado — 39¢ Kalshi $248 (weight 8%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-27T07:20:50.182Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbworstrecord
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Kansas%20City%20have%20the%20worst%20record%20in%20Pro%20Baseball%20in%20the%202026%20regular%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev