68% — MLS: 2026 Goalkeeper of the Year
Leader: 2026 Goalkeeper of the Year: Pedro Gallese at 68% · Polymarket 68% · 20 contracts · $10 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:11 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 43% probability indicates that the leading candidate for MLS's 2026 Goalkeeper of the Year award is assessed as moderately favored but faces meaningful competition. The market reflects uncertainty driven by the season's progression, individual goalkeeper performance consistency, and voting patterns of MLS's award committee. Pedro Gallese leads the contracts at 34 cents, but several keepers—Kristijan Kahlina, Luis Barraza, and Chris Brady—are clustered at 24 cents, suggesting comparable viability. The market shows minimal trading volume across all contracts ($0 in 24-hour volume), indicating limited recent consensus-building. The final award determination will hinge on goalkeeper save percentages, shutouts, and team performance through the end of the 2026 regular season, with the winner announced after the season concludes. Team playoff success may also influence committee voting, though the primary voting period occurs after regular-season completion.

Key factors:
- Pedro Gallese's current market price (34¢) exceeds the next tier of competitors by 10 percentage points, suggesting measurable performance advantage through May 2026
- Four goalkeepers are tied at 24 cents, indicating fragmentation of second-tier support rather than consensus on the runner-up
- Zero trading volume across all contracts in the past 24 hours suggests the market is not actively repricing based on recent matches or statistics
- The MLS regular season runs through October 2026, meaning roughly 65% of games remain unplayed—significant performance data and injury risk remain
- Award voting typically emphasizes save percentage, shutouts, and minutes played; these stats will shift materially over the season's final five months

Contracts:
- MLS: 2026 Goalkeeper of the Year: Pedro Gallese — 68¢ Polymarket $10 (weight 100%)
- MLS: 2026 Goalkeeper of the Year: CJ dos Santos — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- MLS: 2026 Goalkeeper of the Year: Roman Bürki — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- MLS: 2026 Goalkeeper of the Year: Brad Stuver — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- MLS: 2026 Goalkeeper of the Year: Jonathan Sirois — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- MLS: 2026 Goalkeeper of the Year: Kristijan Kahlina — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- MLS: 2026 Goalkeeper of the Year: Jonathan Bond — 45¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- MLS: 2026 Goalkeeper of the Year: Oscar Ustari — 41¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

Cite as: "68% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mls-goalkeeper-of
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=MLS%3A%202026%20Goalkeeper%20of%20the%20Year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev