11% — Will Los Angeles F win the MLS Cup
Kalshi 11% · 7 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 11:44:38 UTC

Why this matters:
This 12% probability indicates that market participants believe Los Angeles Football Club has roughly a 1-in-8 chance of winning the 2026 MLS Cup. The team's relatively low implied probability reflects positioning against stronger favorites like Miami (26%) and Vancouver (13%). The main factors influencing this forecast are LAFC's current regular-season performance, roster health heading into the playoffs, and their historical track record in knockout competitions. The MLS Cup will be decided in December 2026, which represents the primary resolution point for this market. Between now and then, playoff seeding, head-to-head matchups, and injury developments will likely shift probabilities. The low 24-hour trading volume ($44) suggests limited recent market activity around this specific contract.

Key factors:
- LAFC's regular-season points total and current playoff seeding relative to other MLS teams
- Recent injury status or roster changes among key players that affect playoff readiness
- Historical performance in MLS Cup playoffs, including home/away records and goalkeeper consistency
- Quality of strength of schedule in remaining regular-season matches before playoff qualification
- Head-to-head records and recent form against the current favorite teams (Miami, Vancouver) in the projection

Contracts:
- Will Miami win the MLS Cup?: Miami — 19¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 44%)
- Will Vancouver win the MLS Cup?: Vancouver — 18¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 36%)
- Will Nashville win the MLS Cup?: Nashville — 17¢ Kalshi $633 (weight 14%)
- Will Houston win the MLS Cup?: Houston — 4¢ Kalshi $260 (weight 6%)
- Will Los Angeles F win the MLS Cup?: Los Angeles F — 8¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will Chicago win the MLS Cup?: Chicago — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Cincinnati win the MLS Cup?: Cincinnati — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-27T11:21:47.847Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlscup
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Los%20Angeles%20F%20win%20the%20MLS%20Cup
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev