9% — Will Los Angeles F win the MLS Cup
Kalshi 9% · 7 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:40 UTC

Why this matters:
This 9% probability reflects the market's assessment that Los Angeles F has a 1-in-11 chance of winning the 2026 MLS Cup. The low probability likely reflects Los Angeles F's current competitive position relative to other MLS teams, based on regular season performance, roster strength, and playoff track record. The main factor that would adjust this probability is regular season results through mid-2026, as wins and losses directly affect playoff seeding and tournament likelihood. The MLS Cup playoff structure typically concludes in November-December, making the end-of-regular-season standings the critical catalyst that clarifies Los Angeles F's path to the championship. Real-time competitive outcomes and injury reports during the regular season will create ongoing pressure on this probability.

Key factors:
- Los Angeles F's current league standing, points differential, and goal differential compared to the median MLS team
- Historical playoff success rate for teams seeded in Los Angeles F's expected playoff position range
- Key player availability and injury status for Los Angeles F's roster entering the 2026 playoffs
- Recent head-to-head performance and strength of schedule remaining in the 2026 regular season
- Comparative probabilities for other MLS teams, which would indicate if this 9% reflects relative weakness or league-wide uncertainty

Contracts:
- Will Miami win the MLS Cup?: Miami — 24¢ Kalshi $889 (weight 60%)
- Will Los Angeles F win the MLS Cup?: Los Angeles F — 8¢ Kalshi $265 (weight 18%)
- Will Nashville win the MLS Cup?: Nashville — 6¢ Kalshi $222 (weight 15%)
- Will Seattle win the MLS Cup?: Seattle — 7¢ Kalshi $90 (weight 6%)
- Will Chicago win the MLS Cup?: Chicago — 4¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%)
- Will Vancouver win the MLS Cup?: Vancouver — 11¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%)
- Will Cincinnati win the MLS Cup?: Cincinnati — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.999Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlscup
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Los%20Angeles%20F%20win%20the%20MLS%20Cup
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev