38% — Will Los Angeles FC record the first goal of the game
Kalshi 38% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-27 08:34:10 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the chance that Los Angeles FC scores the opening goal in their next match. At 37%, LAFC is the second-most-likely team to score first among the contracts available, trailing only Los Angeles Galaxy at 45%, while three other teams are priced lower. The market is essentially pricing LAFC as a moderate contender for first-goal honors. Factors influencing this probability include team form, offensive efficiency, defensive strength of the opposing team, and recent goal-scoring patterns. The match outcome will be determined when the game is played and either LAFC scores first, another team scores first, or the game ends goalless. Current trading volume shows minimal activity, suggesting limited recent information or betting interest on these specific first-goal contracts.

Key factors:
- LAFC's recent goal-scoring rate and shot conversion percentage compared to typical opening-match patterns
- Opponent's defensive record and early-game defensive performance in recent matches
- Starting lineup composition and availability of LAFC's key attacking players
- Historical data on which teams score first in MLS matches involving comparable-strength opponents
- Match timing and venue (home vs. away), as first-goal probability can vary based on these factors

Contracts:
- Will Los Angeles FC record the first goal of the game?: Los Angeles FC — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Sporting Kansas City record the first goal of the game?: Sporting Kansas City — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will no goal be scored?: No Goal — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Portland Timbers record the first goal of the game?: Portland Timbers — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Real Salt Lake record the first goal of the game?: Real Salt Lake — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Los Angeles Galaxy record the first goal of the game?: Los Angeles Galaxy — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will San Jose Earthquakes record the first goal of the game?: San Jose Earthquakes — 52¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-25T19:20:51.082Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlsftts
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Los%20Angeles%20FC%20record%20the%20first%20goal%20of%20the%20game
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev