21% — Who will join MLS in the summer
Leader: Neymar at 21% · Kalshi 21% · 14 contracts · $292 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-27 07:55:26 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The market assigns a 91% probability that Casemiro will join Major League Soccer this summer, based on 14 competing contracts on Kalshi. This reflects traders' assessment that the Brazilian midfielder's transfer to MLS is highly likely compared to alternatives like Cristiano Ronaldo (20%), Francesco Acerbi (15%), Angel Di Maria (6%), or Mohamed Salah (4%). The high probability for Casemiro reflects reported negotiations and his age—at 32, he may be at a career stage where an MLS move aligns with his trajectory. Movement in these probabilities would depend on official transfer announcements, contract signings, or credible reporting about negotiations. The resolution hinges on which player formally joins an MLS club before the summer transfer window closes, typically in early August.

Key factors:
- Casemiro's contract status with his current club and publicly reported MLS interest from multiple teams
- Official announcement or signing by any of the five listed players to an MLS franchise
- Transfer market activity and deadline dates across relevant leagues (European and Saudi leagues) that might accelerate or delay moves
- Competing interest from other leagues or clubs that could divert any player away from MLS
- Reported financial terms and salary cap space available to MLS teams actively pursuing these players

Contracts:
- Who will join MLS in the summer?: Neymar — 21¢ Kalshi $166 (weight 57%)
- Who will join MLS in the summer?: Lucas Moura — 21¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 4%)
- Who will join MLS in the summer?: Francesco Acerbi — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will join MLS in the summer?: Mohamed Salah — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will join MLS in the summer?: Harry Kane — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will join MLS in the summer?: Manuel Neuer — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will join MLS in the summer?: Angel Di Maria — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will join MLS in the summer?: Sergio Ramos — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-27T07:20:50.658Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlsjoin
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20join%20MLS%20in%20the%20summer
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev