51% — Will New England score over 1.5 goals
Kalshi 51% · 14 contracts · $75 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-27 07:06:43 UTC

Why this matters:
This market reflects a 46% probability that New England scores more than 1.5 goals in an upcoming match, meaning exactly 2 or more goals. The probability sits near even odds, suggesting the market sees moderate scoring potential but not strong confidence. Key factors influencing this level include New England's recent offensive output, defensive matchups against their opponent, and historical goal-scoring patterns in similar fixtures. The primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty is the match itself—the actual game result will definitively answer whether New England reaches the 2+ goal threshold. Related markets show Seattle favored at 70% for over 0.5 goals but only 49% for over 1.5 goals, suggesting general expectation of moderate scoring levels across both teams.

Key factors:
- New England's goal-scoring rate in recent matches compared to seasonal average
- Head-to-head offensive efficiency between New England and their scheduled opponent
- Defensive strength of the opposing team, particularly shots conceded per match
- Whether key New England forwards are available and in current form
- Match conditions and venue (home/away advantage, weather if applicable)

Contracts:
- Will Los Angeles G score over 1.5 goals?: Los Angeles G over 1.5 goals — 39¢ Kalshi $42 (weight 57%)
- Will Los Angeles F score over 2.5 goals?: Los Angeles F over 2.5 goals — 54¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 22%)
- Will San Jose score over 1.5 goals?: San Jose over 1.5 goals — 60¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 21%)
- Will Los Angeles F score over 0.5 goals?: Los Angeles F over 0.5 goals — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Los Angeles F score over 1.5 goals?: Los Angeles F over 1.5 goals — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Kansas City score over 0.5 goals?: Kansas City over 0.5 goals — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Kansas City score over 1.5 goals?: Kansas City over 1.5 goals — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Kansas City score over 2.5 goals?: Kansas City over 2.5 goals — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-25T19:20:51.082Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev