12% — Gervonta Davis to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027 Kalshi 12% · 19 contracts · $34 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-22 03:25:10 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 19% chance that boxer Gervonta Davis will compete in MVP MMA, a promotion founded by Jake Paul, before the end of 2026. The relatively low probability reflects Davis's established boxing career and lack of public statements about MMA competition, alongside the short timeframe remaining. Resolution hinges on whether Davis announces or fights in an MVP event before December 31, 2026. Key considerations include Davis's current boxing schedule commitments, the financial incentives MVP might offer to attract established combat athletes, and whether Davis has expressed any interest in cross-training or competing in MMA. The Jake Paul MVP boxing contract markets trade significantly higher (5¢ for 2027, 75¢ for 2028), suggesting markets view MMA participation as distinctly less likely than boxing involvement. Davis would need to make a public commitment and actually compete within approximately five months for this to resolve affirmatively. Key factors: - Davis has no publicly known MMA experience or training; any competition would require substantial preparation or announcement - MVP MMA events have occurred with limited mainstream fighter participation; the promotion's ability to attract established boxers to MMA remains unproven - Related markets show Jake Paul at 5¢ for MVP boxing and various fighters trading between 6¢-17¢, indicating markets price MMA crossover as substantially less likely than boxing - The December 31, 2026 deadline provides approximately five months for announcement, training, and actual competition to occur - Davis maintains active boxing commitments that would complicate simultaneous MMA preparation Contracts: - Michael Chandler to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027?: Michael Chandler — 5¢ Kalshi $34 (weight 100%) - Jake Paul to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028?: Jake Paul — 53¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Amanda Serrano to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028?: Amanda Serrano — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Floyd Mayweather Jr. to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028?: Floyd Mayweather Jr. — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Conor McGregor to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028?: Conor McGregor — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Michael Chandler to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028?: Michael Chandler — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Kamaru Usman to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028?: Kamaru Usman — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Charles Oliveira to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028?: Charles Oliveira — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-22T02:20:49.479Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mmacompete Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Gervonta%20Davis%20to%20compete%20in%20the%20MVP%20(Most%20Valuable%20Promotions)%20MMA%20before%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev