86% — MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader: Ilhan Omar at 86% · Polymarket 86% · 2 contracts · $41 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:17 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates an 80% probability that a specific candidate wins the Minnesota 5th District Democratic primary. The high confidence reflects either strong polling or fundraising data favoring the leading candidate, with the remaining 20% probability distributed to alternatives. This outcome would shift depending on candidate endorsements, debate performance, or turnout patterns in the district. The primary election date—typically held in early August for Minnesota congressional races—represents the key resolution event. Until then, campaign developments and any public polling releases would be the primary drivers of probability movement, as would any major gaffes or endorsement swings that alter the perceived front-runner status.

Key factors:
- Leading candidate's current polling margin versus nearest competitor in MN-05
- Endorsement patterns from state party leadership, incumbent representatives, or union organizations
- Relative fundraising totals and cash-on-hand position as of latest FEC reports
- Historical turnout and demographic composition of Minnesota 5th District primary voters
- Timing and results of any public polling releases between now and election day

Contracts:
- MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner: Ilhan Omar — 86¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner: Latonya Reeves — 14¢ Polymarket $41 (weight 100%)

Cite as: "86% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mn05-democratic-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=MN-05%20Democratic%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev