73% — MN-08 House Election Winner
Leader: Republican Party at 73% · Polymarket 73% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 11:08:29 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The current 67% probability indicates that the leading candidate in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District is favored to win this House seat. This level reflects market expectations based on available polling, historical voting patterns, and demographic composition of the district. The probability would move higher if recent polling shows the leading candidate strengthening their position, or lower if new surveys indicate movement toward the runner-up. The general election scheduled for November 2026 is the key event that will resolve this market. Between now and then, primary results, candidate performance in debates, fundraising reports, and updated district polling will likely shift the probability as new information becomes available. The 36-point gap between the leader and runner-up suggests moderate confidence in the outcome, though substantial uncertainty remains given the typical volatility of House races and the months remaining until the election.

Key factors:
- Latest internal and public polling showing the leader's margin in MN-08 and trend direction since last major survey
- Primary election results or endorsements that could signal momentum shifts before the general election in November 2026
- Demographic and historical voting data for the district compared to statewide and national election performance trends
- Campaign funding and resource levels for both the leading and runner-up candidates as of the most recent FEC reporting
- National political environment factors that could affect House races, including approval ratings and generic ballot polling

Contracts:
- MN-08 House Election Winner: Republican Party — 73¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)
- MN-08 House Election Winner: Democratic Party — 27¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "73% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mn08-house-election-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=MN-08%20House%20Election%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev