41% — Will Jared Adams be the Democratic nominee for MN-07
Kalshi 41% · 7 contracts · $896 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 00:11:38 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability indicates there is approximately a 44% chance that Jared Adams will win the Democratic primary election for Minnesota's 7th congressional district. Primary outcomes depend heavily on factors like candidate name recognition, endorsement patterns from party leadership, and voter turnout across the district. The nomination will be determined by the Minnesota Democratic primary election, which typically occurs in early summer. Performance in earlier candidate forums, fundraising totals, and field organization strength relative to other candidates in the race would likely be the key metrics that shift this probability up or down as the primary approaches.

Key factors:
- Jared Adams's fundraising totals compared to other Democratic candidates running in MN-07
- Endorsements from Minnesota state Democratic Party officials and federal legislators representing the state
- Vote share in any early primary elections, straw polls, or candidate preference surveys among registered Democrats
- Voter turnout levels in the MN-07 district relative to historical Democratic primary participation rates
- Name recognition and polling differentials between Adams and his primary opponents in the district

Contracts:
- Will Paul Xiong be the Republican nominee for MN-04?: Paul Xiong — 26¢ Kalshi $450 (weight 50%)
- Will Paul Wikstrom be the Republican nominee for MN-04?: Paul Wikstrom — 69¢ Kalshi $405 (weight 45%)
- Will Tyler Bass be the Republican nominee for MN-03?: Tyler Bass — 15¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 3%)
- Will Erik Osberg be the Democratic nominee for MN-07?: Erik Osberg — 93¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 1%)
- Will Quentin Wittrock be the Republican nominee for MN-03?: Quentin Wittrock — 80¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 1%)
- Will Aswar Rahman be the Democratic nominee for MN-04?: Aswar Rahman — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Julie Le be the Democratic nominee for MN-05?: Julie Le — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-09T23:20:49.453Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "41% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mnprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jared%20Adams%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20MN-07
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev