97% — Will the change in Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican primary for Governor be between 1 and 10 at the primary's final certification
Kalshi 97% · 1 contracts · $548 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-09-08 14:19:36 UTC

Why this matters:
This market measures whether Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell will shift by 1-10 votes between now and final certification of the 2026 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary. The 35% probability reflects that small margin shifts are more likely than no change (36%), but less likely than larger swings. The current assessment depends on whether remaining vote counts, recounts, or certification adjustments produce modest vote movements. The primary takes place in August 2026, with certification typically occurring within days to weeks after Election Day. Market pricing suggests traders expect either no material change in the margin or shifts larger than 10 votes, rather than a small single-digit or low double-digit swing. Resolution hinges entirely on the official certified vote totals announced by Minnesota election officials.

Key factors:
- The primary election date of August 2026 determines when vote certification begins and the window for final margin calculation
- Current polling and early voting patterns between Demuth and Lindell establish the baseline margin before potential recounts or adjustments
- Minnesota's certification procedures and timelines—including recount triggers and administrative corrections—will determine which vote changes count toward final certification
- The initial reported margin between the candidates sets the denominator; small swings (1-10 votes) become less probable if the reported gap is much larger
- Any recount requests, provisional ballot challenges, or discovered counting errors must fall within the 1-10 vote range to resolve this contract affirmatively

Contracts:
- Will the change in Lisa Demuth's certified vote margin over Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican primary for Governor be exactly 0 at the primary's final certification?: No change — 97¢ Kalshi $548 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-31T13:21:51.455Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mnrecountmargin
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20change%20in%20Lisa%20Demuth's%20certified%20vote%20margin%20over%20Mike%20Lindell%20in%20the%202026%20Minnesota%20Republican%20primary%20for%20Governor%20be%20between%201%20and%2010%20at%20the%20primary's%20final%20certification
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev