69% — MO-06 Republican Primary Winner
Leader: Chris Stigall at 69% · Polymarket 69% · 6 contracts · $75 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:37:24 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability indicates that Chris Stigall is considered the frontrunner to win the Republican primary for Missouri's 6th Congressional District, with markets assigning him roughly a 2-in-3 chance. The current odds likely reflect Stigall's name recognition, fundraising position, or endorsements relative to other candidates in the field. The probability could shift based on debate performance, campaign spending data, polling releases, or changes in candidate viability—particularly if a second-tier candidate consolidates support or if new information emerges about frontrunner strength. The primary election date will ultimately resolve this outcome, with the winner determined by actual voting results. Markets pricing multiple candidates between 4-14% suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether Stigall maintains his lead through the primary process.

Key factors:
- Stigall maintains 69% implied probability versus nearest competitor at 14%, indicating but not guaranteeing frontrunner status
- Nathan Willett holds second position at 12%, suggesting a two-candidate competition scenario is priced into markets
- Polymarket contracts show minimal 24-hour trading volume except Willett ($116), indicating low liquidity and wider bid-ask spreads for most outcomes
- Six candidates priced between 4-69% reflects fragmented field where consolidation events could rapidly reprrice probabilities
- Missouri's 6th District primary election date will serve as resolution event, with results determining actual winner versus market forecast accuracy

Contracts:
- MO-06 Republican Primary Winner: Chris Stigall — 69¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- MO-06 Republican Primary Winner: Nathan Willett — 16¢ Polymarket $75 (weight 100%)
- MO-06 Republican Primary Winner: Cody Oshel — 6¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- MO-06 Republican Primary Winner: Nathanael Schultz — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- MO-06 Republican Primary Winner: Gena Ross — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- MO-06 Republican Primary Winner: James Ingram — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:08.336Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "69% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mo06-republican-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=MO-06%20Republican%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev