9% — Will Beyoncé appear in mobile game advertisement this year Kalshi 9% · 10 contracts · $11 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 01:50:47 UTC Why this matters: This prediction estimates a 9% chance that Beyoncé will appear in a mobile game advertisement before the end of 2026. The low probability reflects that celebrity mobile game endorsements, while not rare, involve specific alignment between a performer's brand, available opportunities, and business terms. Key factors include Beyoncé's historical selectivity in commercial partnerships, the typical lead time for major advertising campaigns, and competitive dynamics within the mobile gaming sector. With approximately six months remaining in 2026, any major announcement would likely have already been announced or be in advanced production stages. The market is pricing in low likelihood partly based on limited historical precedent and the absence of any announced partnerships as of mid-June 2026. Key factors: - Beyoncé's track record shows selective commercial endorsements; fewer appearances in mobile game ads than mainstream celebrities like Shaq - Mobile game advertising budgets and campaign timelines typically require 3-6 months advance planning and announcement - Gaming industry spending on A-list celebrity partnerships has grown but remains concentrated among specific franchises - No announced partnership or leak as of June 2026 with six months remaining in the year suggests lower probability than if deals were in pipeline - Comparable artists (Dua Lipa at 7%, Jay-Z at 3%) trade at similarly low probabilities, indicating baseline skepticism across the cohort Contracts: - Will Shaquille O'Neal appear in mobile game advertisement this year?: Shaquille O'Neal — 27¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 100%) - Will Beyoncé appear in mobile game advertisement this year?: Beyoncé — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Dua Lipa appear in mobile game advertisement this year?: Dua Lipa — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jay-Z appear in mobile game advertisement this year?: Jay-Z — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Paul George appear in mobile game advertisement this year?: Paul George — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will The Rock appear in mobile game advertisement this year?: The Rock — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Scarlett Johansson appear in mobile game advertisement this year?: Scarlett Johansson — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Selena Gomez appear in mobile game advertisement this year?: Selena Gomez — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T01:20:49.493Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mobilegamead Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Beyonc%C3%A9%20appear%20in%20mobile%20game%20advertisement%20this%20year Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev