9% — Will Grok be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena
Kalshi 9% · 5 contracts · $21 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 00:25:55 UTC

Why this matters:
This 17% probability reflects market expectations that Grok will be the first AI system to achieve a 1550 score on Text Arena in 2026. The low odds suggest skepticism about Grok's near-term performance relative to competitors like Claude and Google's AI models. Market participants appear to weight Claude's current capabilities more heavily, as evidenced by its 36% probability on a similar Kalshi contract. The outcome depends primarily on the relative speed at which each AI company improves their models and achieves benchmark scores this year. Resolution will occur when any AI system first reaches the 1550 threshold on Text Arena, which will likely happen gradually as models are updated and new versions released throughout 2026. The timing of major model releases and benchmark updates from Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI will be critical determinants.

Key factors:
- Grok's recent benchmark performance relative to Claude, Google Gemini, and OpenAI's latest models on similar evaluation metrics
- The frequency and magnitude of model updates from xAI versus competitor releases planned for 2026
- Current market participants are pricing Claude as 2.1x more likely to hit 1550 first, suggesting confidence in Anthropic's development trajectory
- The Text Arena benchmark's difficulty rating and whether intermediate scores suggest any model is approaching the 1550 threshold
- Trading volume and contract spreads suggest moderate uncertainty, with 51¢ on "None in 2026" indicating meaningful probability that no system reaches 1550 this year

Contracts:
- Will Claude be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?: Claude — 21¢ Kalshi $21 (weight 100%)
- Will Gemini be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?: Gemini — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will ChatGPT be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?: ChatGPT — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Grok be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?: Grok — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Other be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?: Other — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T00:20:49.024Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/modelhigh
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Grok%20be%20the%20first%20to%20hit%201550%20on%20Text%20Arena
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev