22% — Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election
Leader: Alexandr Stoianoglo at 22% · Kalshi 22% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 16:08:32 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Current prediction markets price Alexandr Stoianoglo at 22% to win Moldova's next presidential election, reflecting his standing as the frontrunner among six tracked candidates. This probability reflects uncertainty about the timing and competitive landscape of the election, which has not yet been formally scheduled. Stoianoglo's position as the leading candidate stems from his previous polling performance and political visibility, though the 22% price indicates substantial remaining uncertainty—no single candidate commands majority confidence. The market also reflects that alternative candidates like Natalia Gavrilița (7%), Dorin Recean (12%), and Igor Dodon (11%) remain viable contenders. Key drivers of probability movement would include official election date announcements, shifts in public polling data, coalition formations or party mergers, and changes in candidate eligibility or campaign momentum. The formal scheduling of the election or any major electoral events would likely narrow the current wide spread of probabilities across candidates.

Key factors:
- No official presidential election date has been formally announced as of August 2026, creating timeline uncertainty that distributes probability across multiple candidates rather than concentrating it
- Stoianoglo's current 22% probability is the highest among six tracked candidates, but combined alternatives total 47%, indicating the market sees substantial uncertainty about the eventual winner
- Gavrilița's 7% price and $31 24-hour trading volume suggest some recent market activity around alternative candidates despite Stoianoglo's frontrunner status
- No single candidate price exceeds 25%, indicating fragmented voter preference or incomplete polling consensus in the market's assessment
- Historical Moldovan election volatility and coalition dynamics could cause rapid probability shifts if new political developments emerge before formal candidacy registration

Contracts:
- Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election?: Alexandr Stoianoglo — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election?: Dorin Recean — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election?: Igor Dodon — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T15:20:50.041Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/moldovapres
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%20next%20Moldovan%20presidential%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev