88% — Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Leader: Reilly Neill at 88% · Polymarket 88% · 2 contracts · $2K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 10:15:09 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 92% probability indicates that one candidate is strongly favored to win Montana's Democratic Senate primary, with limited market uncertainty about the outcome. This reflects either substantial early polling leads, favorable structural conditions for the frontrunner, or high entry barriers for challengers. The probability level could shift if unexpected polling emerges, endorsements consolidate behind an alternative candidate, or fundraising dynamics change materially. The primary election date will ultimately resolve this contract; candidates' performances in debates, candidate forums, and any late-stage candidate withdrawals between now and election day represent the main catalysts that could move these odds. Current trading volume suggests limited active speculation, which typically accompanies races with clearer perceived outcomes.

Key factors:
- One candidate holds a decisive preference advantage in available polling or early voting metrics relative to other primary contenders
- The frontrunner has secured endorsements or fundraising advantages that create structural obstacles for challengers to gain traction
- Montana's Democratic primary electorate size, participation rates, and geographic distribution favor the leading candidate's electoral coalition
- No major scandal, gaffe, or external event has emerged recently that would destabilize the frontrunner's position
- Trading volume of $625 per 24 hours across contracts indicates relatively modest speculative interest compared to general-election races

Contracts:
- Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Reilly Neill — 88¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 77%)
- Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Alani Bankhead — 10¢ Polymarket $482 (weight 23%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-04T07:20:12.344Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "88% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/montana-democratic-senate-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Montana%20Democratic%20Senate%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev