44% — Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre
Leader: Shōnan Bellmāre at 44% · Polymarket 44% · 3 contracts · $46 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-25 14:47:57 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 42% probability indicates that Shōnan Bellmāre is currently favored to win an upcoming match against Montedio Yamagata, though neither team has overwhelming odds. The market pricing reflects Shōnan's slight edge, with Montedio at 34% and a draw at 28%. In Japanese football (J-League), match outcomes depend on recent form, head-to-head records, player availability, and home-field advantage. The current probability would shift upward for Shōnan if they enter the match on a winning streak or if key Montedio players are unavailable; it would move downward if Montedio shows improved recent performance or if injuries affect Shōnan's squad. The match date will be the primary catalyst that resolves this uncertainty, as the actual result will determine payout. Until then, the market is pricing in moderate confidence in Shōnan's chances rather than a strong consensus.

Key factors:
- Recent league standings and win-loss records for both teams in the 2026 season
- Head-to-head historical matchup data between Montedio Yamagata and Shōnan Bellmāre
- Confirmed player injuries, suspensions, or roster changes affecting either squad
- Home or away designation and venue (home-field advantage historically influences J-League outcomes)
- The specific match date and whether either team faces fixture congestion in surrounding weeks

Contracts:
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: Shōnan Bellmāre — 44¢ Polymarket $46 (weight 100%)
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: Montedio Yamagata — 28¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre) — 27¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-05-25T07:20:12.261Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "44% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/montedio-yamagata-vs-shnan-bellmre
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Montedio%20Yamagata%20vs.%20Sh%C5%8Dnan%20Bellm%C4%81re
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev