82% — Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets
Leader: O/U 1.5 at 82% · Polymarket 82% · 9 contracts · $92 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-25 14:48:04 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing a 60% probability that both Montedio Yamagata and Shōnan Bellmāre will score goals in their upcoming match. This outcome sits well above the runner-up scenario (21%), suggesting traders expect offensive activity from both sides rather than a low-scoring or one-sided result. The probability reflects recent form, tactical tendencies, and defensive vulnerabilities of both J2 League clubs. Volume across contracts is minimal ($0 in 24-hour trading), indicating limited market depth and relatively few active traders pricing this event. The match result will definitively resolve whether both teams score, providing clear data on offensive efficiency and defensive solidity for each club.

Key factors:
- Recent goal-scoring records of both teams in their last 5–10 matches, including average goals per match and clean-sheet frequency
- Historical head-to-head scoring patterns between Montedio Yamagata and Shōnan Bellmāre in prior meetings
- Current injury or suspension status of key forwards and defensive players for either club that would affect scoring probability
- J2 League standings and relative league position, which typically correlates with offensive and defensive capability
- Market liquidity and trading volume remaining near zero, suggesting the 60% price may not reflect sufficient consensus or active price discovery

Contracts:
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: O/U 1.5 — 82¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: Both Teams to Score — 53¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: O/U 2.5 — 50¢ Polymarket $72 (weight 78%)
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: O/U 3.5 — 28¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: O/U 4.5 — 14¢ Polymarket $20 (weight 22%)
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: Shōnan Bellmāre (-1.5) — 14¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: Montedio Yamagata (-1.5) — 11¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: Shōnan Bellmāre (-2.5) — 10¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-05-25T07:20:12.261Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "82% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/montedio-yamagata-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-markets
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Montedio%20Yamagata%20vs.%20Sh%C5%8Dnan%20Bellm%C4%81re%20-%20More%20Markets
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev