41% — Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets
Polymarket 41% · 9 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 16:14:19 UTC

Why this matters:
This market reflects a lean toward Montedio Yamagata in a match against Thespa Gunma, with traders pricing the outcome at 51% based on available contracts on Polymarket. The probability sits notably above a pure coin flip, suggesting modest market confidence in Yamagata's chances relative to alternatives. The J-League context matters here: both teams operate in Japanese domestic competition, and current form, recent head-to-head records, and home-field advantage typically influence these spreads. The resolution will depend entirely on the match result when played. Key uncertainties stem from squad availability, recent injury reports, and how market participants weight offensive versus defensive strength in the league's typical playing patterns.

Key factors:
- Montedio Yamagata win probability is priced 17 percentage points above the runner-up outcome (51% vs. 34%), indicating moderate consensus rather than ambiguity
- Polymarket volume across five contracts totals low absolute liquidity ($265+ 24h range across listed pairs), potentially reducing confidence in price precision
- No stated match date in available data; resolution timeline directly impacts whether near-term form and injuries remain relevant to the probability
- Home-field advantage in J-League tends to shift win probabilities 5-10 percentage points in favored teams' direction, a factor baked into current pricing
- Head-to-head historical records between Yamagata and Gunma would explain persistence of 51% if the teams have played recently with consistent outcome patterns

Contracts:
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 3.5 — 36¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Montedio Yamagata (-2.5) — 32¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Thespa Gunma (-1.5) — 33¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 2.5 — 52¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Montedio Yamagata (-1.5) — 33¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Both Teams to Score — 51¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 1.5 — 65¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Thespa Gunma (-2.5) — 35¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- ... and 1 more

Cite as: "41% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets
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