39% — Will Brad Patty be the Republican nominee for MO-05
Kalshi 39% · 14 contracts · $238 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 00:38:31 UTC

Why this matters:
Brad Patty's 31% probability reflects the current betting assessment of his chances to secure the Republican nomination for Missouri's 5th congressional district. This moderate probability suggests meaningful competition in the race. The nomination outcome will be shaped by factors including candidate fundraising totals, endorsements from party leadership and local influencers, turnout patterns in primary voting, and the number of viable competitors splitting the Republican field. The Republican primary election date will ultimately resolve this market. Until then, significant shifts in polling, campaign financing disclosures, or candidate dropout announcements could substantially move the probability in either direction. Comparative nominating contests in adjacent Missouri districts show varying competitive dynamics, suggesting MO-05's specific electoral landscape will determine the outcome.

Key factors:
- Fundraising and cash-on-hand reported in official FEC filings through primary season
- Number and strength of competing Republican candidates remaining in the MO-05 race
- Primary election date and voter turnout levels among registered Republicans
- Endorsements from state party officials, incumbent representatives, and major conservative organizations
- Polling data from internal campaigns and public surveys conducted among likely primary voters

Contracts:
- Will Hartzell Gray 3rd be the Democratic nominee for MO-04?: Hartzell Gray 3rd — 59¢ Kalshi $125 (weight 52%)
- Will Nathanael Schultz be the Republican nominee for MO-06?: Nathanael Schultz — 6¢ Kalshi $93 (weight 39%)
- Will Nathan Hall Willett be the Republican nominee for MO-06?: Nathan Hall Willett — 17¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 8%)
- Will Andrew Jones be the Republican nominee for MO-01?: Andrew Jones — 58¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Paul Berry III be the Republican nominee for MO-01?: Paul Berry III — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Fred Wellman be the Democratic nominee for MO-02?: Fred Wellman — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Joan VonDras be the Democratic nominee for MO-02?: Joan VonDras — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Timothy D Bilash be the Democratic nominee for MO-02?: Timothy D Bilash — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T00:20:49.384Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/moprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Brad%20Patty%20be%20the%20Republican%20nominee%20for%20MO-05
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev